Matchup analysis
Our model projects Washington 27, Penn State 24 at Husky Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Washington wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Penn State is 3-4 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.8 per game). Washington is 4-3 against the 65th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+5.2 per game).
Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) meets Washington's strong defense (40th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Penn State puts up. Washington's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) meets Penn State's strong defense (35th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Washington puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Penn State by 19 and Washington by 26 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington by about 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Penn State vs Washington: stat comparison
| Stat | Penn State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7#70 | 27.9#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9#28 | 22.7#57 |
| Yards per play | 5.91#79 | 6.08#61 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58#66 | 5.47#62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.4#114 | 122.4#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.0#36 | 262.6#32 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 178.1#99 | 141.3#51 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 150.4#7 | 205.9#69 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#84 | 0.86#59 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#53 | 1.43#14 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#113 | 1.86#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#53 | 3.00#128 |
| Stat | Penn State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#107 | +0.06#83 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#41 | -0.01#40 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#109 | 43.9%#60 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#59 | 39.7%#49 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#107 | 14.0%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#92 | 10.9%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#23 | 16.8%#14 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#76 | 13.3%#71 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.22#52 | 4.36#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72#58 | 3.95#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#29 | own 28#104 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#12 | own 30#97 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#68 | 63.3#95 |
| Stat | Penn State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#134 | -0.02#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#58 | +0.12#62 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#112 | -0.06#26 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.14#13 | +0.04#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2%#126 | 40.6%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 42.7%#61 | 46.3%#34 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#41 | 20.2%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6%#77 | 27.3%#114 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#45 | 29.1%#64 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8%#109 | 34.5%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.2%#15 | 32.6%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#96 | 62.1%#69 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.4%#113 | 61.1%#80 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Penn State schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 10 projections
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