Matchup analysis
Our model projects Army 30, Air Force 25 at Michie Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Army wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.6 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Air Force is 5-2 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+7.5 per game). Army is 5-2 against the 107th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.3 and allowing 22.1 points per game (+13.2 per game).
Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) meets Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (73rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Air Force puts up. Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Air Force's below-average defense (88th); that mismatch is where most of Army's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 17 and Army by 28 about 80% of the time.
Army gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Army by about 3.5. The game is on CBS.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Air Force vs Army: stat comparison
| Stat | Air Force | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4#71 | 35.3#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#42 | 22.1#55 |
| Yards per play | 5.68#97 | 6.34#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#96 | 6.49#124 |
| Rushing yards per game | 341.1#1 | 337.0#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 68.7#138 | 73.1#137 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 141.3#52 | 156.3#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.0#21 | 217.1#91 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#35 | 0.29#9 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#71 | 0.43#126 |
| Sacks per game | 1.29#115 | 1.14#123 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.71#6 | 0.43#4 |
| Stat | Air Force | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#31 | +0.24#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#77 | +0.21#131 |
| Success rate | 48.5%#22 | 49.4%#14 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#69 | 44.5%#112 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#113 | 12.0%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#67 | 14.4%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#101 | 12.5%#107 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.0%#1 | 9.5%#7 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.64#31 | 4.76#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.07#97 | 3.59#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#63 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#69 | own 26#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.1#9 | 64.7#80 |
| Stat | Air Force | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#7 | +0.26#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#43 | +0.19#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#77 | +0.18#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#82 | +0.25#124 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.2%#5 | 51.8%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 35.7%#121 | 42.5%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.7%#1 | 11.4%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.6%#99 | 32.4%#51 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#59 | 37.9%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.4%#6 | 51.2%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#63 | 46.3%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1%#57 | 74.1%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#61 | 54.2%#43 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Air Force schedule · Army schedule · all Week 10 projections
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