Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eastern Michigan 24, Central Michigan 23 on a neutral field at Ford Field in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Eastern Michigan wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.2 points and 47.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Central Michigan is 3-5 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17.9 and allowing 25.9 points per game (-8 per game). Eastern Michigan is 4-5 against the 131st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-4.4 per game).
Expect Central Michigan to find it hard going: Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (108th) outranks Central Michigan's struggling offense (127th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18 points against an average defense). Central Michigan's below-average defense (99th) should limit Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (114th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Central Michigan by 21 and Eastern Michigan by 24 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.9#132 | 21.3#113 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.9#89 | 25.7#86 |
| Yards per play | 5.07#131 | 4.92#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#86 | 6.16#106 |
| Rushing yards per game | 182.5#55 | 121.0#128 |
| Net passing yards per game | 116.5#134 | 206.8#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.5#109 | 144.6#56 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#35 | 234.3#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#74 | 1.00#88 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#43 | 0.78#83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#74 | 1.56#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.25#98 | 1.89#81 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#116 | -0.01#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#70 | +0.07#80 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#119 | 39.7%#114 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.6%#129 | 43.0%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 6.5%#138 | 10.4%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#72 | 13.9%#113 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#125 | 13.6%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#64 | 13.7%#81 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.44#115 | 4.07#74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.35#110 | 3.58#47 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#103 | own 27#127 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#117 | own 30#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#127 | 66.6#65 |
| Stat | Central Michigan | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#25 | +0.03#92 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27#138 | -0.04#119 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#130 | -0.03#36 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#23 | +0.16#105 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5%#36 | 41.8%#92 |
| Passing success rate | 25.2%#138 | 36.3%#118 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.5%#9 | 18.8%#95 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.6%#131 | 30.0%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2%#118 | 31.0%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.1%#99 | 40.0%#81 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.5%#134 | 41.6%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#71 | 55.5%#103 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#133 | 67.3%#108 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Central Michigan schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 10 projections
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