Matchup analysis
Our model projects Louisville 35, Georgia Tech 25 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Louisville wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Louisville is 4-3 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.7 and allowing 27.4 points per game (+11.3 per game). Georgia Tech is 2-5 against the 43rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-3.6 per game).
Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Georgia Tech's below-average defense (89th); that mismatch is where most of Louisville's projected points come from. Expect Georgia Tech to find it hard going: Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) outranks Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 32 and Georgia Tech by 13 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Louisville is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Louisville vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisville | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.7#11 | 26.7#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#99 | 30.3#114 |
| Yards per play | 7.85#1 | 6.50#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68#73 | 6.10#98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.6#13 | 144.1#104 |
| Net passing yards per game | 257.9#37 | 255.4#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#88 | 222.7#131 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 257.3#125 | 187.0#40 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#38 | 1.14#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#25 | 0.29#135 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#44 | 1.71#96 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#84 | 2.29#100 |
| Stat | Louisville | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.29#4 | +0.12#50 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#102 | +0.22#132 |
| Success rate | 48.9%#19 | 44.8%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#81 | 44.8%#119 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5%#1 | 16.2%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#46 | 13.7%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#72 | 11.3%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#122 | 14.8%#107 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.74#25 | 3.93#87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#62 | 4.07#96 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 28#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 31#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#109 | 61.4#113 |
| Stat | Louisville | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#2 | +0.14#32 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#12 | +0.11#65 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#67 | +0.17#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#110 | +0.29#131 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8%#23 | 44.8%#63 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#20 | 44.8%#47 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.9%#129 | 19.1%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#41 | 30.4%#79 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#112 | 39.9%#134 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0%#36 | 35.0%#114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0%#34 | 44.7%#121 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#13 | 52.0%#117 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1%#28 | 51.6%#38 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisville schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 10 projections
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