Matchup analysis
Our model projects Delaware 28, Kennesaw State 28 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Delaware wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.3 points and 56 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Delaware is 4-4 against the 116th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 27.5 points per game (+1.6 per game). Kennesaw State is 2-6 against the 96th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.4 per game).
Delaware's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kennesaw State's below-average defense (103rd); that mismatch is where most of Delaware's projected points come from. Kennesaw State's below-average offense (118th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense) meets Delaware's struggling defense (125th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kennesaw State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 23 and Kennesaw State by 22 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Delaware is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Delaware vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
| Stat | Delaware | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#66 | 23.0#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.5#100 | 25.4#83 |
| Yards per play | 5.98#69 | 5.67#98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#100 | 5.94#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.1#121 | 138.6#112 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.9#34 | 231.4#63 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 143.0#54 | 158.0#75 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 266.9#130 | 224.1#98 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#107 | 0.86#61 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#70 | 0.43#127 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#27 | 0.86#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#130 | 1.14#23 |
| Stat | Delaware | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#56 | +0.04#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#96 | +0.08#89 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#88 | 43.2%#68 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#101 | 43.4%#99 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#59 | 10.9%#117 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#100 | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#50 | 11.4%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#112 | 10.3%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#65 | 4.06#75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.57#46 | 4.06#95 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#37 | own 25#133 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#68 | own 30#92 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#76 | 65.3#73 |
| Stat | Delaware | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05#87 | +0.05#84 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#45 | +0.03#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#85 | -0.01#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#91 | +0.17#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1%#90 | 43.4%#79 |
| Passing success rate | 42.6%#62 | 43.1%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#105 | 21.1%#124 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#60 | 29.8%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.0%#103 | 32.9%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#117 | 41.6%#67 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.4%#53 | 37.6%#55 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.7%#101 | 57.8%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.5%#109 | 67.7%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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