Matchup analysis
Our model projects Auburn 29, Arkansas 20 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Auburn wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.2 points and 49.1 combined points.
Arkansas is 3-4 against the 8th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). Auburn is 4-3 against the 3rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.4 and allowing 24.1 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Expect Arkansas to find it hard going: Auburn's strong defense (32nd) outranks Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense). Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Arkansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Auburn puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Arkansas by 13 and Auburn by 32 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Auburn by about 7.1. The game is on SEC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Arkansas vs Auburn: stat comparison
| Stat | Arkansas | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#115 | 25.4#93 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.7#96 | 24.1#69 |
| Yards per play | 5.08#130 | 5.48#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#109 | 5.60#70 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.6#124 | 183.4#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.6#71 | 195.0#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.1#71 | 159.3#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 207.7#73 | 248.4#118 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#76 | 1.00#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#46 | 1.14#32 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#109 | 2.29#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#99 | 4.29#136 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#125 | +0.04#93 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#101 | +0.08#90 |
| Success rate | 43.2%#66 | 40.6%#100 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0%#103 | 42.6%#88 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7%#131 | 13.6%#47 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8%#111 | 10.3%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#79 | 13.0%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#78 | 15.8%#123 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#103 | 3.98#82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.21#137 | 3.70#55 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#125 | own 28#112 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#95 | own 28#51 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#42 | 69.0#36 |
| Stat | Arkansas | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#121 | +0.09#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#112 | +0.00#107 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21#134 | +0.07#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.02#41 | +0.09#86 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1%#97 | 42.3%#87 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#44 | 39.1%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1%#52 | 15.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#111 | 32.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.2%#3 | 31.9%#102 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.4%#61 | 43.3%#53 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6%#120 | 36.2%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#94 | 65.2%#52 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 85.2%#138 | 66.7%#101 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Arkansas schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 10 projections
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