Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama 28, LSU 27 at Tiger Stadium (LA) in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Alabama wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.5 points and 55.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Alabama (No. 10) is 6-2 against the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.3 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+17 per game). LSU (No. 15) is 6-2 against the 18th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 16 points per game (+24.1 per game).
Alabama's elite offense (5th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.4 points against an average defense) meets LSU's elite defense (9th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Alabama puts up. LSU's elite offense (7th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.6 points against an average defense) meets Alabama's elite defense (7th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points LSU puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama by 23 and LSU by 22 about 80% of the time.
LSU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama / LSU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | LSU -3.5 | 54.5 | +154 / -185 |
| DraftKings | LSU -3.5 | 54.5 | +154 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | LSU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -0.5 | 55.4 | 49% |
| Market consensus | LSU -3.5 | 54.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | LSU -3 | 55.0 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- LSU win probability
- model 49% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -0.5 · market LSU -3.5 · difference -4.0 pts (LSU view)
- Total
- model 55.4 · market 54.5 · difference +0.9
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies LSU 59%.
Model margin is 4.0 pts more toward Alabama than the market.
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Alabama vs LSU: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.3#13 | 40.1#7 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#50 | 16.0#17 |
| Yards per play | 6.64#28 | 6.68#24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.70#75 | 4.51#4 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.5#70 | 198.0#33 |
| Net passing yards per game | 246.9#47 | 330.3#4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.1#24 | 111.9#14 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.4#106 | 159.3#13 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#97 | 1.25#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#3 | 1.13#38 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#34 | 3.88#3 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.88#124 | 1.63#56 |
| Stat | Alabama | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#32 | +0.18#29 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00#45 | -0.21#1 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#32 | 51.1%#4 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.6%#29 | 32.9%#1 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.1%#12 | 14.2%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#83 | 9.4%#12 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#45 | 20.7%#1 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3%#129 | 12.0%#38 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.73#26 | 4.81#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.55#119 | 3.33#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#17 | own 32#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#11 | own 28#42 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#104 | 79.1#2 |
| Stat | Alabama | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#35 | +0.10#58 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#33 | +0.25#21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | 0.00#56 | -0.14#4 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#49 | -0.26#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.4%#27 | 48.5%#25 |
| Passing success rate | 45.4%#42 | 53.6%#7 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#98 | 17.1%#71 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.3%#54 | 43.6%#4 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#65 | 24.2%#10 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.2%#54 | 55.7%#5 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#45 | 34.5%#30 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 82.4%#4 | 69.8%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0%#93 | 57.9%#60 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama schedule · LSU schedule · all Week 10 projections
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