Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Carolina 29, UConn 24 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: North Carolina wins about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.1 points and 52.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
North Carolina is 4-3 against the 10th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+3.5 per game). UConn is 4-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+11.7 per game).
North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UConn's below-average defense (96th); that mismatch is where most of North Carolina's projected points come from. Expect UConn to find it hard going: North Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) outranks UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Carolina by 28 and UConn by 17 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. North Carolina is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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North Carolina vs UConn: stat comparison
| Stat | North Carolina | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#97 | 35.6#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#43 | 23.9#67 |
| Yards per play | 5.82#88 | 6.97#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.23#41 | 5.59#69 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.0#123 | 220.9#17 |
| Net passing yards per game | 215.6#81 | 232.3#62 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 169.9#93 | 116.1#20 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.1#81 | 279.4#135 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#91 | 1.00#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#58 | 0.71#96 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#71 | 1.86#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.14#95 | 3.14#133 |
| Stat | North Carolina | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#101 | +0.15#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#69 | +0.03#63 |
| Success rate | 45.6%#42 | 43.3%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#94 | 41.1%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#98 | 15.6%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.3%#4 | 9.6%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2%#126 | 14.7%#58 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#49 | 12.0%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#33 | 4.31#50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.38#30 | 3.57#45 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#64 | own 31#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#116 | own 28#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.7#129 | 65.0#75 |
| Stat | North Carolina | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#100 | +0.22#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.08#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#81 | -0.05#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#64 | +0.09#87 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#67 | 45.8%#53 |
| Passing success rate | 46.3%#35 | 43.1%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.4%#58 | 15.7%#42 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.4%#68 | 32.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#8 | 27.4%#41 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#47 | 40.0%#80 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7%#107 | 40.2%#88 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#55 | 73.0%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#34 | 60.0%#75 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Carolina schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 10 projections
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