Matchup analysis
Our model projects Clemson 26, Syracuse 24 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Clemson wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 49.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Clemson is 4-3 against the 24th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.4 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.1 per game). Syracuse is 3-4 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+5.3 per game).
Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (74th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Clemson puts up. Expect Syracuse to find it hard going: Clemson's strong defense (30th) outranks Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Clemson by 25 and Syracuse by 21 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Clemson is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Clemson vs Syracuse: stat comparison
| Stat | Clemson | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#112 | 31.6#50 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#52 | 26.3#93 |
| Yards per play | 5.24#123 | 5.79#90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.80#14 | 5.59#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.3#80 | 180.3#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.7#107 | 283.9#14 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.9#57 | 157.6#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.0#20 | 190.9#45 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#108 | 1.29#123 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#116 | 0.86#69 |
| Sacks per game | 2.86#16 | 2.43#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#131 | 2.43#108 |
| Stat | Clemson | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#132 | +0.11#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#24 | +0.02#56 |
| Success rate | 37.1%#129 | 43.3%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6%#66 | 42.5%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#123 | 11.8%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#31 | 13.7%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0%#13 | 16.4%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#113 | 12.9%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.23#126 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#16 | 4.11#101 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#31 | own 32#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#18 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#59 | 80.1#1 |
| Stat | Clemson | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.08#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16#134 | +0.13#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#80 | +0.13#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.15#11 | -0.08#29 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.3%#117 | 45.1%#58 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#120 | 41.6%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#99 | 17.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#86 | 29.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9%#123 | 28.6%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.3%#129 | 44.4%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#24 | 38.2%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.9%#135 | 56.8%#98 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8%#71 | 66.7%#103 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Clemson schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 10 projections
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