Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kansas State 31, Oklahoma State 29 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Kansas State wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Oklahoma State (No. 24) is 5-2 against the 60th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40 and allowing 23.7 points per game (+16.3 per game). Kansas State is 4-3 against the 83rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+11.8 per game).
Oklahoma State's strong offense (37th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th); that mismatch is where most of Oklahoma State's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas State's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) against Oklahoma State's middle-of-the-pack defense (77th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma State by 20 and Kansas State by 25 about 80% of the time.
Kansas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas State by about 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Oklahoma State vs Kansas State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.0#8 | 32.9#43 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7#65 | 21.1#47 |
| Yards per play | 7.57#5 | 6.35#47 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.81#84 | 5.20#38 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.1#39 | 222.3#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 347.6#2 | 226.9#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 152.0#67 | 174.1#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 232.1#105 | 134.3#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#125 | 0.71#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 0.29#134 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#62 | 2.43#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#25 | 0.86#9 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#21 | +0.14#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#98 | +0.02#53 |
| Success rate | 49.7%#13 | 44.8%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#93 | 37.2%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7%#7 | 11.6%#97 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#45 | 13.9%#112 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#104 | 16.5%#17 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.2%#27 | 11.6%#30 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#43 | 4.33#48 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#79 | 4.42#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#72 | own 30#73 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#87 | own 27#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#11 | 70.7#16 |
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#57 | +0.17#22 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#19 | +0.12#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#62 | -0.01#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#112 | +0.05#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9%#31 | 48.6%#24 |
| Passing success rate | 51.2%#14 | 41.4%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.2%#22 | 16.0%#48 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.1%#21 | 35.2%#32 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.0%#25 | 30.9%#87 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.3%#94 | 54.5%#8 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#70 | 34.0%#27 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8%#113 | 60.3%#77 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.2%#96 | 68.9%#117 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma State schedule · Kansas State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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