Matchup analysis
Our model projects Coastal Carolina 23, Old Dominion 22 at Brooks Stadium (SC) in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Coastal Carolina wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 45.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Old Dominion is 2-6 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.5 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-11.3 per game). Coastal Carolina is 2-5 against the 115th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.1 and allowing 25.9 points per game (+0.2 per game).
Old Dominion's struggling offense (130th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense) meets Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Old Dominion puts up. Old Dominion's below-average defense (84th) should limit Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (113th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Old Dominion by 22 and Coastal Carolina by 23 about 80% of the time.
Coastal Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Old Dominion would be favoured by 1.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Old Dominion vs Coastal Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.5#133 | 26.1#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8#97 | 25.9#90 |
| Yards per play | 4.06#138 | 5.96#75 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.99#23 | 6.46#121 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.4#133 | 167.4#69 |
| Net passing yards per game | 129.0#133 | 214.9#83 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.4#58 | 216.9#130 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.8#68 | 206.6#71 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#118 | 1.14#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#87 | 1.00#62 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#70 | 2.14#64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.75#137 | 2.71#121 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.17#138 | +0.01#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#23 | +0.12#111 |
| Success rate | 30.4%#138 | 39.4%#116 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3%#42 | 45.0%#121 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.5%#132 | 13.0%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#44 | 13.9%#116 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#51 | 13.7%#73 |
| Havoc allowed | 22.1%#138 | 15.2%#114 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.87#135 | 3.79#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.71#57 | 3.47#39 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#131 | own 29#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#136 | own 29#77 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1#120 | 64.1#87 |
| Stat | Old Dominion | Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#136 | +0.04#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23#136 | -0.01#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14#5 | +0.12#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#58 | +0.13#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.9%#136 | 42.9%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 27.7%#137 | 37.1%#114 |
| Run stuff rate | 30.5%#138 | 16.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#105 | 31.0%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.7%#81 | 30.0%#71 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.2%#119 | 37.2%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.9%#60 | 45.6%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.4%#128 | 62.5%#66 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.9%#16 | 56.3%#51 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Old Dominion schedule · Coastal Carolina schedule · all Week 10 projections
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