Matchup analysis
Our model projects App State 30, Georgia State 30 at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: App State wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 59.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Georgia State is 4-3 against the 129th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 26 points per game (+9.9 per game). App State is 5-2 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.1 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Georgia State's middle-of-the-pack offense (72nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) against App State's below-average defense (105th). App State's below-average offense (101st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense) meets Georgia State's below-average defense (114th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points App State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Georgia State by 22 and App State by 23 about 80% of the time.
App State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Georgia State would be favoured by 2. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Georgia State vs App State: stat comparison
| Stat | Georgia State | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.9#28 | 30.1#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#92 | 23.1#61 |
| Yards per play | 6.77#20 | 5.98#70 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71#79 | 5.24#43 |
| Rushing yards per game | 204.6#28 | 153.4#96 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.1#44 | 259.3#35 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.9#80 | 138.0#48 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.4#47 | 223.6#97 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#124 | 0.57#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.43#129 | 1.57#9 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#11 | 1.29#116 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#16 | 1.57#54 |
| Stat | Georgia State | App State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#25 | +0.08#69 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#95 | +0.02#54 |
| Success rate | 46.6%#37 | 42.0%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#44 | 42.8%#90 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.3%#9 | 14.5%#30 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.2%#131 | 11.0%#50 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#59 | 14.7%#60 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#36 | 13.5%#77 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.51#35 | 4.11#69 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.39#32 | 3.73#60 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#80 | own 32#35 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#130 | own 28#49 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#58 | 69.0#37 |
| Stat | Georgia State | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#30 | -0.00#113 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#27 | +0.15#46 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#127 | +0.08#93 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#66 | -0.05#36 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#54 | 37.6%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 47.6%#29 | 45.4%#43 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0%#70 | 19.1%#101 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.6%#24 | 32.5%#50 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.2%#16 | 27.8%#47 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7%#29 | 38.5%#93 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 29.9%#7 | 34.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.9%#74 | 75.2%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.2%#48 | 62.9%#87 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Georgia State schedule · App State schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.