Matchup analysis
Our model projects Toledo 40, Sacramento State 15 at Hornet Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Toledo wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.9 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Toledo is 6-2 against the 122nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+12 per game). Sacramento State is 1-7 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 32.9 points per game (-17.6 per game).
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th); that mismatch is where most of Toledo's projected points come from. Expect Sacramento State to find it hard going: Toledo's below-average defense (87th) outranks Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 47 and Toledo by 2 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Toledo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Toledo vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
| Stat | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#16 | 15.3#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#85 | 32.9#127 |
| Yards per play | 6.74#21 | 4.98#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.96#22 | 6.23#112 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.0#41 | 120.5#129 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.1#13 | 197.6#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.0#62 | 183.1#104 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.1#46 | 193.8#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#27 | 1.13#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#44 | 0.63#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#18 | 1.13#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#7 | 2.13#88 |
| Stat | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#47 | -0.07#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#32 | +0.06#76 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#62 | 38.8%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4%#17 | 41.9%#79 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#33 | 8.4%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#40 | 14.2%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 15.2%#39 | 10.5%#134 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#40 | 15.6%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#88 | 2.88#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#61 | 4.22#105 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#12 | own 29#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 29#71 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.6#18 | 63.9#90 |
| Stat | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | -0.02#118 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#40 | -0.12#131 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#25 | +0.06#84 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#43 | +0.07#76 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7%#75 | 39.6%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 46.9%#32 | 35.4%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#69 | 22.0%#130 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#87 | 24.7%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#35 | 26.4%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3%#42 | 32.1%#130 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#37 | 40.9%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4%#61 | 33.4%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#73 | 67.7%#111 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Toledo schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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