Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Carolina 27, Texas A&M 26 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: South Carolina wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 52.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Texas A&M is 4-4 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.3 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.4 per game). South Carolina is 4-3 against the 23rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+10.8 per game).
Texas A&M's strong offense (28th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32 points against an average defense) meets South Carolina's strong defense (27th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas A&M puts up. South Carolina's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.9 points against an average defense) meets Texas A&M's strong defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Carolina puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas A&M by 22 and South Carolina by 23 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texas A&M would be favoured by 1.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Texas A&M vs South Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas A&M | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.3#72 | 36.1#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9#27 | 25.3#80 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#122 | 6.39#39 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01#93 | 5.24#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.9#63 | 220.1#18 |
| Net passing yards per game | 185.4#110 | 229.1#65 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 135.9#43 | 126.7#31 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.1#66 | 210.3#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#116 | 0.86#56 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88#63 | 0.71#89 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88#133 | 2.57#23 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#61 | 2.14#89 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#106 | +0.15#40 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#43 | +0.08#91 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#71 | 44.0%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#45 | 42.8%#89 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6%#122 | 13.1%#60 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6%#132 | 11.3%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#97 | 13.5%#80 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#54 | 12.2%#44 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.54#34 | 4.86#15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#23 | 4.73#130 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#19 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#57 | own 29#74 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#54 | 70.3#20 |
| Stat | Texas A&M | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#61 | +0.25#4 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#124 | +0.06#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#19 | -0.01#51 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08#83 | +0.16#107 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.6%#68 | 47.1%#40 |
| Passing success rate | 40.9%#78 | 41.3%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#34 | 13.3%#14 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#47 | 29.9%#92 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.4%#31 | 31.7%#100 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9%#56 | 46.5%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#20 | 36.6%#48 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.1%#73 | 72.0%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.1%#77 | 73.7%#130 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas A&M schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 10 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.