Matchup analysis
Our model projects San José State 30, Northern Illinois 20 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: San José State wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 50.2 combined points.
Northern Illinois is 0-7 against the 59th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.1 and allowing 38.6 points per game (-23.5 per game). San José State is 4-4 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.4 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-2.1 per game).
San José State's below-average defense (100th) should limit Northern Illinois's struggling offense (129th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.2 points against an average defense). San José State's struggling offense (121st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19 points against an average defense) meets Northern Illinois's struggling defense (134th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San José State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Illinois by 13 and San José State by 32 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour San José State by about 7.7. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northern Illinois vs San José State: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Illinois | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.1#135 | 20.4#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6#136 | 22.5#56 |
| Yards per play | 5.21#125 | 5.52#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.69#131 | 5.36#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 115.6#132 | 140.8#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.0#96 | 219.0#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 229.1#135 | 164.8#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#86 | 222.8#96 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#67 | 0.88#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#60 | 1.13#42 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#127 | 3.63#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.29#134 | 2.25#97 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#89 | -0.04#128 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#128 | +0.02#55 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#126 | 37.1%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.2%#137 | 41.7%#75 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#108 | 11.5%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#124 | 10.9%#47 |
| Havoc rate | 9.7%#137 | 15.1%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#103 | 15.3%#118 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#130 | 3.71#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.86#134 | 3.19#17 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#128 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#109 | own 30#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.1#121 | 65.1#74 |
| Stat | Northern Illinois | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#42 | -0.08#130 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#106 | +0.00#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#128 | +0.03#69 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#126 | +0.00#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.8%#93 | 34.5%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 35.0%#125 | 40.2%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9%#97 | 18.8%#96 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.5%#132 | 22.4%#136 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.6%#137 | 28.5%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#126 | 31.2%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 61.5%#138 | 37.7%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.1%#129 | 54.5%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.9%#132 | 54.9%#44 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Illinois schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 10 projections
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