Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wisconsin 32, Eastern Michigan 11 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Wisconsin wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.9 points and 42.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Eastern Michigan is 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-7.6 per game). Wisconsin is 1-1, scoring 24.5 and allowing 25 points per game (-0.5 per game).
Expect Eastern Michigan to find it hard going: Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd) outranks Eastern Michigan's struggling offense (124th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). Wisconsin's below-average offense (113th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) meets Eastern Michigan's struggling defense (121st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Wisconsin puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Michigan by 2 and Wisconsin by 43 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wisconsin by about 18.8. The game is on Peacock.
Result: Eastern Michigan 10, Wisconsin 54. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.1 points and the total by 21.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Michigan / Wisconsin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wisconsin -24.5 → Wisconsin -23.5 | 45.75 → 43.75 | +1150 / -2850 |
| Bovada | Wisconsin -24.5 → Wisconsin -23.5 | 46 → 44 | +1100 / -3300 |
| DraftKings | Wisconsin -24.5 → Wisconsin -23.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wisconsin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wisconsin -21 | 42.3 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Wisconsin -23.5 | 43.8 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Wisconsin -23 | 45.0 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wisconsin win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Wisconsin -20.9 · market Wisconsin -23.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Wisconsin view)
- Total
- model 42.3 · market 43.75 · difference -1.5
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Eastern Michigan than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Michigan 20.1, Wisconsin 26.7 | Wisconsin 67%right winner | 37.4 | 17.3 |
| New formula | Eastern Michigan 14.8, Wisconsin 31.0 | Wisconsin 85%right winner | 27.8 | 18.2 |
Final: Eastern Michigan 10, Wisconsin 54. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Michigan vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.7#119 | 24.5#97 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3#98 | 25.0#91 |
| Yards per play | 4.74#126 | 6.54#59 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.82#101 | 5.34#73 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.7#129 | 156.0#89 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.3#101 | 216.5#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.0#97 | 136.0#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 249.3#108 | 189.5#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#91 | 0.50#63 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#47 | 0.00#134 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#77 | 0.50#131 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#92 | 1.00#55 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#127 | +0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#46 | +0.09#100 |
| Success rate | 36.8%#123 | 34.7%#129 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#77 | 42.4%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.1%#128 | 13.3%#60 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.1%#87 | 10.2%#43 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#62 | 9.3%#132 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#56 | 14.3%#94 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.67#34 | 3.18#122 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#71 | 4.78#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#128 | own 33#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#111 | own 21#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.7#90 | 57.0#116 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#52 | +0.05#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.23#129 | 0.00#99 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#54 | -0.00#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#51 | +0.20#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.0%#99 | 31.4%#129 |
| Passing success rate | 34.5%#117 | 38.3%#95 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.3%#77 | 16.7%#64 |
| Passing-down success rate | 18.0%#131 | 21.6%#124 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.4%#38 | 17.2%#7 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#94 | 40.0%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.6%#77 | 29.2%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 80.0%#19 | 0.0%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.0%#112 | 42.9%#24 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Michigan schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.