Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 12 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Wisconsin wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8 points and 33 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Minnesota is 5-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.1 points per game (+6.5 per game). Wisconsin (No. 25) is 5-2 against the 22nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+11.7 per game).
Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) should limit Minnesota's below-average offense (92nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense). Expect Wisconsin to find it hard going: Minnesota's strong defense (37th) outranks Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Minnesota by 15 and Wisconsin by 31 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wisconsin by about 5.9. The game is on NBC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Minnesota vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
| Stat | Minnesota | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#83 | 27.0#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.1#35 | 15.3#13 |
| Yards per play | 5.41#117 | 6.00#68 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.82#16 | 4.43#3 |
| Rushing yards per game | 107.0#135 | 155.0#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 230.7#64 | 191.9#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.4#41 | 114.4#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 146.0#6 | 182.1#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#82 | 0.71#51 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#21 | 1.00#59 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#57 | 1.71#99 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.86#10 | 1.14#27 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#130 | +0.06#85 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#19 | -0.11#10 |
| Success rate | 39.8%#113 | 39.3%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#48 | 38.4%#35 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#91 | 12.3%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#48 | 6.9%#2 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#10 | 14.4%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#79 | 12.6%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.57#108 | 4.09#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.50#117 | 3.10#12 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#5 | own 32#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#15 | own 25#5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.4#103 | 57.9#134 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#137 | +0.10#55 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#104 | +0.01#103 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#79 | -0.12#7 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#7 | -0.10#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8%#128 | 39.6%#108 |
| Passing success rate | 41.3%#74 | 38.9%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#134 | 14.2%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.2%#137 | 26.1%#119 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#96 | 24.6%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4%#112 | 46.1%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.1%#8 | 41.8%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.9%#82 | 57.1%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.4%#98 | 40.0%#6 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Minnesota schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 13 projections
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