Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Louisiana Tech 27.2, Army 25.1 at Joe Aillet Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Louisiana Tech wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 52.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Army is 2-1, scoring 34.7 and allowing 16 points per game (+18.7 per game). Louisiana Tech is 1-2, scoring 37.7 and allowing 29 points per game (+8.7 per game).
Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets Louisiana Tech's below-average defense (86th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Army puts up. Louisiana Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (70th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.5 points against an average defense) meets Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisiana Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Army by 20 and Louisiana Tech by 25 about 80% of the time.
Louisiana Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Army would be dead even. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Army 29, Louisiana Tech 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Army / Louisiana Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -3.25 → Louisiana Tech -0.25 | 45.5 → 46.75 | -137.5 / +15 |
| DraftKings | Army -3.5 → Louisiana Tech -1.5 | 44.5 → 46.5 | -105 / -115 |
| Bovada | Army -3 → Army -1 | 46.5 → 47 | -170 / +145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Louisiana Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Louisiana Tech -2 | 52.3 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Louisiana Tech -0.5 | 46.8 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Louisiana Tech -0.5 | 48.1 | 52% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Louisiana Tech win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Louisiana Tech -2.1 · market Louisiana Tech -0.25 · difference +1.9 pts (Louisiana Tech view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 46.75 · difference +5.5
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward Louisiana Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Army 25.1, Louisiana Tech 27.2 | Louisiana Tech 55%right winner | 0.1 | 7.7 |
| New formula | Army 24.6, Louisiana Tech 27.5 | Louisiana Tech 58%right winner | 1.0 | 7.9 |
Final: Army 29, Louisiana Tech 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Army vs Louisiana Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Army | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7#50 | 37.7#33 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.0#33 | 29.0#111 |
| Yards per play | 6.76#41 | 5.18#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.22#107 | 5.57#77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 360.3#1 | 134.3#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 79.0#136 | 193.7#102 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 145.3#70 | 146.0#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 186.3#55 | 244.0#110 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#28 | 1.67#126 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#136 | 2.33#4 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#122 | 3.00#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#3 | 2.67#119 |
| Stat | Army | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.32#5 | +0.01#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#129 | -0.12#9 |
| Success rate | 53.6%#4 | 38.7%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0%#122 | 35.2%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1%#27 | 13.6%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#125 | 12.6%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#80 | 16.7%#22 |
| Havoc allowed | 6.6%#1 | 16.2%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.37#4 | 4.40#55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40#40 | 3.99#85 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#61 | own 37#6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 22#2 | own 35#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#75 | 63.3#93 |
| Stat | Army | Louisiana Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.32#1 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#21 | -0.03#111 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#98 | -0.08#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.36#131 | -0.16#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.7%#7 | 32.8%#136 |
| Passing success rate | 48.1%#38 | 33.8%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.8%#4 | 20.3%#112 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#56 | 28.7%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 37.5%#125 | 25.3%#34 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 51.6%#18 | 43.9%#60 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.3%#52 | 39.6%#81 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#49 | 71.8%#34 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#38 | 45.5%#27 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Army schedule · Louisiana Tech schedule · all Week 5 projections
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