Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Syracuse 27, UConn 26.9 at Pratt & Whitney Stadium in Week 5. That is a genuine toss-up: Syracuse wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Syracuse is 1-2, scoring 32.3 and allowing 17 points per game (+15.3 per game). UConn is 2-2, scoring 34.8 and allowing 22.3 points per game (+12.5 per game).
Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UConn's below-average defense (94th); that mismatch is where most of Syracuse's projected points come from. UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) meets Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UConn puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 23 and UConn by 22 about 80% of the time.
UConn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Syracuse is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Syracuse 42, UConn 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.9 points and the total by 29.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Syracuse / UConn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Syracuse -6 → Syracuse -6.5 | 52.75 → 51 | -242.5 / +197.5 |
| Bovada | Syracuse -5.5 → Syracuse -6.5 | 52 → 50.5 | -220 / +180 |
| DraftKings | Syracuse -6.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | -265 / +215 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UConn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 53.9 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Syracuse -6.5 | 51.0 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Syracuse -5.5 | 51.9 | 35% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UConn win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model Syracuse -0.1 · market Syracuse -6.5 · difference +6.4 pts (UConn view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 51 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward UConn than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Syracuse 27.0, UConn 26.9 | Syracuse 50%right winner | 0.9 | 29.1 |
| New formula | Syracuse 26.7, UConn 27.0 | UConn 51%wrong winner | 1.3 | 29.2 |
Final: Syracuse 42, UConn 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Syracuse vs UConn: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Syracuse | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#60 | 34.8#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.0#35 | 22.3#65 |
| Yards per play | 5.86#86 | 6.70#45 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.51#17 | 5.35#67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.0#58 | 195.5#43 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.0#29 | 230.3#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.3#73 | 103.0#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 121.0#4 | 282.5#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#125 | 1.25#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#106 | 0.50#114 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#32 | 1.25#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#117 | 2.50#110 |
| Stat | Syracuse | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#71 | +0.11#65 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#15 | +0.02#62 |
| Success rate | 41.2%#95 | 43.1%#73 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4%#62 | 39.0%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1%#49 | 14.3%#44 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#67 | 9.9%#29 |
| Havoc rate | 16.9%#17 | 15.0%#56 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#84 | 11.8%#42 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.31#125 | 4.91#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.25#27 | 3.22#25 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#17 | own 31#60 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#42 | own 28#61 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 78.0#4 | 63.5#90 |
| Stat | Syracuse | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#51 | +0.13#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#74 | +0.09#72 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#72 | -0.03#47 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.22#9 | +0.06#83 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#55 | 45.4%#64 |
| Passing success rate | 36.0%#119 | 41.6%#80 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1%#126 | 15.3%#54 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2%#64 | 33.7%#52 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.1%#8 | 29.6%#74 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8%#33 | 44.0%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.2%#43 | 40.0%#85 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.6%#121 | 83.8%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6%#72 | 56.2%#61 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Syracuse schedule · UConn schedule · all Week 5 projections
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