Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 35, Clemson 17.1 at Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.9 points and 52 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Miami (No. 4) is 4-0, scoring 51.8 and allowing 9 points per game (+42.8 per game). Clemson is 3-1, scoring 21 and allowing 22 points per game (-1 per game).
Miami's elite offense (3rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Clemson's strong defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Miami's projected points come from. Expect Clemson to find it hard going: Miami's elite defense (4th) outranks Clemson's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 40 and Clemson by 5 about 80% of the time.
Clemson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Miami 41, Clemson 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.1 points and the total by 2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami / Clemson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -12 → Miami -14.75 | 52.25 → 48.5 | -825 / +550 |
| DraftKings | Miami -7 → Miami -14 | 55.5 → 49.5 | -700 / +500 |
| Bovada | Miami -17 → Miami -15.5 | 49 → 47.5 | -950 / +600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Clemson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -18 | 52.0 | 12% |
| Market consensus | Miami -14.5 | 48.5 | 15% |
| Blended projection | Miami -15.5 | 49.6 | 15% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Clemson win probability
- model 12% · market (no-vig) 15% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -17.9 · market Miami -14.75 · difference -3.1 pts (Clemson view)
- Total
- model 52.0 · market 48.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward Miami than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami 35.0, Clemson 17.1 | Miami 88%right winner | 10.1 | 2.0 |
| New formula | Miami 35.9, Clemson 15.0 | Miami 92%right winner | 7.1 | 3.0 |
Final: Miami 41, Clemson 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami vs Clemson: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Miami | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 51.8#3 | 21.0#121 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.0#4 | 22.0#64 |
| Yards per play | 8.58#1 | 5.27#118 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.25#9 | 5.21#56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 231.5#20 | 169.0#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 351.8#4 | 160.3#122 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 55.3#1 | 166.0#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 180.8#45 | 204.3#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#23 | 1.25#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#120 | 1.00#67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#54 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#20 | 2.75#123 |
| Stat | Miami | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.28#9 | -0.10#132 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#58 | -0.07#24 |
| Success rate | 52.2%#9 | 33.8%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5%#49 | 39.7%#66 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#25 | 11.3%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8%#61 | 11.9%#80 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6%#65 | 15.5%#42 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.5%#13 | 16.0%#122 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.91#22 | 3.89#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18#22 | 2.91#12 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 30#78 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#9 | own 26#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0#48 | 62.5#102 |
| Stat | Miami | Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#34 | +0.07#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.39#11 | -0.27#136 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#45 | +0.11#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#56 | -0.22#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.4%#16 | 34.2%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 66.3%#1 | 33.3%#128 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.5%#36 | 20.6%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.1%#59 | 26.9%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#52 | 37.6%#126 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.8%#14 | 28.3%#132 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.2%#25 | 39.0%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.8%#60 | 36.4%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.0%#46 | 60.0%#82 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami schedule · Clemson schedule · all Week 5 projections
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