Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Massachusetts 29.3, Eastern Michigan 22.6 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Massachusetts wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Eastern Michigan is 2-3, scoring 19 and allowing 27.2 points per game (-8.2 per game). Massachusetts is 4-0, scoring 36.3 and allowing 12.8 points per game (+23.5 per game).
Massachusetts's below-average defense (104th) should limit Eastern Michigan's struggling offense (123rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.3 points against an average defense). Massachusetts's below-average offense (114th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense) meets Eastern Michigan's struggling defense (128th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Massachusetts puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eastern Michigan by 16 and Massachusetts by 29 about 80% of the time.
Massachusetts gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Massachusetts by about 4.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14. Eastern Michigan won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 30.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Michigan / Massachusetts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Massachusetts -4 → Massachusetts -5.75 | 48.5 → 49.25 | +175 / -210 |
| Bovada | Massachusetts -5.5 → Massachusetts -6 | 48.5 → 49 | +165 / -195 |
| DraftKings | Massachusetts -2.5 → Massachusetts -5.5 | 48.5 → 49.5 | +185 / -225 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Massachusetts win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Massachusetts -6.5 | 51.9 | 67% |
| Market consensus | Massachusetts -6 | 49.3 | 65% |
| Blended projection | Massachusetts -6 | 50.3 | 66% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Massachusetts win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Massachusetts -6.7 · market Massachusetts -5.75 · difference +1.0 pts (Massachusetts view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 49.25 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Michigan 22.6, Massachusetts 29.3 | Massachusetts 67%wrong winner | 30.7 | 0.1 |
| New formula | Eastern Michigan 22.2, Massachusetts 28.8 | Massachusetts 67%wrong winner | 30.6 | 0.9 |
Final: Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0#126 | 36.3#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.2#102 | 12.8#15 |
| Yards per play | 4.91#127 | 6.62#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#89 | 4.69#27 |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.2#131 | 201.8#39 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.8#98 | 150.8#126 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.2#76 | 93.3#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.4#99 | 213.8#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#85 | 0.25#25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#61 | 2.25#7 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#71 | 2.75#31 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.60#70 | 1.00#38 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#121 | +0.14#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#96 | -0.13#6 |
| Success rate | 38.0%#123 | 44.5%#58 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#88 | 36.9%#35 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#120 | 13.1%#74 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#87 | 9.4%#19 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#91 | 15.3%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5%#95 | 11.2%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#101 | 4.45#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.93#79 | 3.35#36 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#130 | own 38#5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#106 | own 25#14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.2#95 | 53.3#138 |
| Stat | Eastern Michigan | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#101 | +0.13#46 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09#118 | +0.15#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#87 | -0.04#40 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#95 | -0.22#8 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#103 | 50.0%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 35.5%#121 | 42.9%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#95 | 14.9%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.6%#111 | 32.0%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4%#82 | 25.4%#36 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#83 | 36.6%#104 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7%#83 | 31.5%#28 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.6%#91 | 64.5%#73 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.4%#117 | 56.9%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Michigan schedule · Massachusetts schedule · all Week 5 projections
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