Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Central Michigan 27.6, Akron 22.2 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Central Michigan wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Akron is 1-3, scoring 19.5 and allowing 31.8 points per game (-12.3 per game). Central Michigan is 2-2, scoring 11.8 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-15.7 per game).
Expect Akron to find it hard going: Central Michigan's below-average defense (102nd) outranks Akron's struggling offense (126th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.1 points against an average defense). Central Michigan's struggling offense (133rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense) meets Akron's struggling defense (130th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Central Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 17 and Central Michigan by 28 about 80% of the time.
Central Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Central Michigan by about 3.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Akron 17, Central Michigan 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.6 points and the total by 8.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Akron / Central Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Central Michigan -5.75 → Central Michigan -6.75 | 46.75 → 47.25 | +207.5 / -254 |
| Bovada | Central Michigan -6 → Central Michigan -7 | 47 | +190 / -230 |
| DraftKings | Central Michigan -5.5 → Central Michigan -6.5 | 46.5 → 47.5 | +225 / -278 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Central Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Central Michigan -5.5 | 49.7 | 64% |
| Market consensus | Central Michigan -7 | 47.3 | 69% |
| Blended projection | Central Michigan -6.5 | 48.4 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Central Michigan win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Central Michigan -5.4 · market Central Michigan -6.75 · difference -1.3 pts (Central Michigan view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 47.25 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Akron than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Akron 22.2, Central Michigan 27.6 | Central Michigan 64%right winner | 18.6 | 8.3 |
| New formula | Akron 22.0, Central Michigan 26.0 | Central Michigan 60%right winner | 20.0 | 9.9 |
Final: Akron 17, Central Michigan 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Akron vs Central Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.5#124 | 11.8#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8#123 | 27.5#104 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#119 | 4.57#136 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.00#130 | 6.04#97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 150.8#103 | 184.5#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.8#105 | 72.5#138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.3#86 | 172.0#104 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 260.8#123 | 209.8#77 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#90 | 1.25#111 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#123 | 1.25#46 |
| Sacks per game | 0.25#138 | 1.25#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75#125 | 2.25#102 |
| Stat | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08#128 | -0.08#129 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#108 | +0.08#88 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#82 | 36.0%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6%#91 | 47.0%#129 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.1%#51 | 6.7%#138 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.2%#132 | 11.6%#72 |
| Havoc rate | 10.7%#127 | 10.7%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.5%#129 | 14.0%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.33#57 | 2.93#131 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#73 | 4.58#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 29#95 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#125 | own 32#114 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8#89 | 56.3#134 |
| Stat | Akron | Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#71 | +0.14#40 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20#133 | -0.57#138 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13#14 | +0.20#127 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#123 | -0.03#48 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.0%#25 | 43.4%#83 |
| Passing success rate | 36.4%#118 | 19.6%#138 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.3%#28 | 11.6%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.8%#94 | 20.4%#135 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.3%#114 | 36.5%#120 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.0%#68 | 38.5%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.3%#101 | 48.0%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#29 | 40.0%#133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#40 | 80.0%#125 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Akron schedule · Central Michigan schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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