Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 38.9, Rutgers 19.4 at SHI Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Indiana wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.5 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Indiana (No. 6) is 4-0, scoring 43.5 and allowing 9.8 points per game (+33.7 per game). Rutgers is 1-3, scoring 33.8 and allowing 28.5 points per game (+5.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Indiana's elite offense (11th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.9 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (103rd). Indiana's elite defense (7th) should limit Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Indiana by 42 and Rutgers by 3 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Indiana is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on BTN.
Result: Indiana 47, Rutgers 15. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 12.5 points and the total by 3.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Indiana / Rutgers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -23.25 → Indiana -24.25 | 54.5 → 56.75 | -2450 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | Indiana -23.5 → Indiana -24.5 | 53.5 → 56.5 | -2400 / +1200 |
| Bovada | Indiana -23 → Indiana -24 | 55.5 → 57 | -2500 / +1000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rutgers win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -19.5 | 58.3 | 10% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -24 | 56.8 | 8% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -23.5 | 57.1 | 5% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rutgers win probability
- model 10% · market (no-vig) 8% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Indiana -19.5 · market Indiana -24.25 · difference +4.8 pts (Rutgers view)
- Total
- model 58.3 · market 56.75 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward Rutgers than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Indiana 38.9, Rutgers 19.4 | Indiana 90%right winner | 12.5 | 3.7 |
| New formula | Indiana 39.1, Rutgers 18.7 | Indiana 91%right winner | 11.6 | 4.2 |
Final: Indiana 47, Rutgers 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Indiana vs Rutgers: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Indiana | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.5#11 | 33.8#54 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.8#5 | 28.5#107 |
| Yards per play | 7.68#7 | 6.87#31 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.65#23 | 6.38#116 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.0#15 | 163.8#84 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.5#77 | 302.0#19 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 86.5#8 | 173.5#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.0#39 | 193.3#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#2 | 2.50#137 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#34 | 1.00#54 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#27 | 1.75#77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#61 | 2.25#99 |
| Stat | Indiana | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#41 | +0.08#78 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#26 | +0.15#115 |
| Success rate | 46.0%#41 | 45.6%#46 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.9%#22 | 45.6%#117 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.9%#18 | 13.9%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#65 | 15.1%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#96 | 12.8%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#51 | 16.0%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.50#44 | 3.84#95 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.19#23 | 4.19#95 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#18 | own 31#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#24 | own 31#108 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5#109 | 67.8#52 |
| Stat | Indiana | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#76 | +0.07#80 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#30 | +0.09#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#21 | +0.22#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#45 | +0.06#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#60 | 48.6%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 57.8%#6 | 45.9%#48 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.8%#32 | 17.1%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.0%#44 | 35.3%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#66 | 32.9%#105 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.3%#16 | 43.5%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#37 | 36.4%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.2%#39 | 64.9%#71 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.9%#87 | 52.9%#49 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Indiana schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 5 projections
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