Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Arizona State 30.4, Baylor 22.6 at Mountain America Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Arizona State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 53 combined points.
Baylor is 3-1, scoring 29.8 and allowing 13 points per game (+16.8 per game). Arizona State is 2-1, scoring 38 and allowing 24 points per game (+14 per game).
Expect Baylor to find it hard going: Arizona State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) outranks Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (63rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27 points against an average defense). Arizona State's strong offense (41st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) meets Baylor's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 15 and Arizona State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Arizona State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona State by about 5.7. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19. Baylor won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 43.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Baylor / Arizona State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Arizona State -3.5 | 51 → 49 | +150 / -177.5 |
| Bovada | Arizona State -3.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | +155 / -180 |
| DraftKings | Arizona State -3.5 | 51.5 → 49.5 | +145 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Arizona State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Arizona State -8 | 53.0 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Arizona State -3.5 | 49.0 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Arizona State -4 | 50.1 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Arizona State win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Arizona State -7.8 · market Arizona State -3.5 · difference +4.3 pts (Arizona State view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 49 · difference +4.0
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Arizona State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Baylor 22.6, Arizona State 30.4 | Arizona State 70%wrong winner | 43.8 | 21.0 |
| New formula | Baylor 22.1, Arizona State 30.1 | Arizona State 70%wrong winner | 43.9 | 21.8 |
Final: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Baylor vs Arizona State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.8#78 | 38.0#32 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.0#17 | 24.0#79 |
| Yards per play | 5.72#100 | 6.97#24 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.18#6 | 4.90#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 169.5#69 | 173.0#66 |
| Net passing yards per game | 287.8#25 | 287.0#26 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 114.5#29 | 135.7#60 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.3#48 | 156.7#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.75#133 | 1.00#81 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#23 | 0.67#105 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#4 | 1.67#89 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#63 | 1.67#72 |
| Stat | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#114 | +0.01#105 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.12#10 | -0.05#30 |
| Success rate | 41.0%#97 | 43.3%#70 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.8%#10 | 37.9%#39 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#92 | 17.4%#10 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#40 | 10.6%#52 |
| Havoc rate | 18.8%#6 | 14.0%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#116 | 15.2%#108 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.13#129 | 4.36#56 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94#14 | 3.42#42 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#15 | own 34#21 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 32#109 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 80.0#1 | 66.0#66 |
| Stat | Baylor | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#120 | -0.00#107 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#90 | +0.03#94 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15#10 | -0.06#35 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#21 | -0.05#44 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.4%#65 | 40.7%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0%#114 | 45.8%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.9%#64 | 17.0%#77 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#77 | 35.8%#36 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9%#58 | 21.4%#9 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#84 | 30.8%#130 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.9%#67 | 30.0%#24 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 39.9%#134 | 84.0%#3 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.4%#19 | 65.9%#95 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · Arizona State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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