Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas 34.4, Middle Tennessee 17.7 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Kansas wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.7 points and 52.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Middle Tennessee is 2-2, scoring 26 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+4.7 per game). Kansas is 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+7 per game).
Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (69th) should limit Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (64th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense) against Middle Tennessee's below-average defense (116th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 6 and Kansas by 39 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas by about 14.6. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Middle Tennessee 0, Kansas 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 38.3 points and the total by 2.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Middle Tennessee / Kansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas -20.75 → Kansas -21 | 51.5 → 51 | +825 / -1500 |
| Bovada | Kansas -20 → Kansas -20.5 | 50.5 | +750 / -1400 |
| DraftKings | Kansas -21.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | +900 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas -16.5 | 52.1 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Kansas -21 | 51.0 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Kansas -20.5 | 51.8 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Kansas -16.7 · market Kansas -21 · difference -4.3 pts (Kansas view)
- Total
- model 52.1 · market 51 · difference +1.1
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Middle Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Middle Tennessee 17.7, Kansas 34.4 | Kansas 86%right winner | 38.3 | 2.9 |
| New formula | Middle Tennessee 16.2, Kansas 35.7 | Kansas 90%right winner | 35.5 | 3.0 |
Final: Middle Tennessee 0, Kansas 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Middle Tennessee vs Kansas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.0#92 | 29.7#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#56 | 22.7#68 |
| Yards per play | 5.96#82 | 6.25#67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34#112 | 4.62#21 |
| Rushing yards per game | 141.3#110 | 193.0#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 213.3#87 | 244.3#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 167.5#98 | 121.0#35 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.8#66 | 163.7#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#20 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#39 | 0.00#135 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#137 | 1.67#88 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25#50 | 1.67#71 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#93 | +0.12#60 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#81 | -0.06#28 |
| Success rate | 40.9%#99 | 40.6%#102 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#94 | 31.8%#5 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#98 | 15.3%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#79 | 9.5%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#111 | 16.5%#25 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#54 | 13.1%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.87#94 | 3.39#123 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.96#82 | 3.25#26 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#115 | own 27#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#66 | own 36#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.5#118 | 70.0#32 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#87 | +0.08#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#87 | +0.16#53 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#89 | -0.23#2 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#79 | +0.15#103 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2%#76 | 42.9%#86 |
| Passing success rate | 41.8%#78 | 38.1%#106 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6%#70 | 9.2%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.7%#86 | 27.0%#105 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0%#60 | 23.4%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.6%#126 | 38.6%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.6%#32 | 28.9%#17 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.3%#81 | 80.3%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.9%#77 | 42.0%#16 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 5 projections
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