Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Iowa State 32.4, West Virginia 23.3 at Jack Trice Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Iowa State wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 55.8 combined points.
West Virginia is 3-1, scoring 36.3 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+11.5 per game). Iowa State is 2-2, scoring 30.8 and allowing 16 points per game (+14.8 per game).
West Virginia's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points West Virginia puts up. Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (65th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over West Virginia's below-average defense (105th); that mismatch is where most of Iowa State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between West Virginia by 13 and Iowa State by 32 about 80% of the time.
Iowa State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Iowa State by about 7. The game is on TNT.
Result: West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.1 points and the total by 31.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Virginia / Iowa State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Iowa State -2 → Iowa State -3 | 53 → 53.25 | +127.5 / -150 |
| Bovada | Iowa State -2.5 → Iowa State -3 | 52.5 → 53 | +125 / -145 |
| DraftKings | Iowa State -1.5 → Iowa State -3 | 53.5 | +130 / -155 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Iowa State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Iowa State -9 | 55.8 | 72% |
| Market consensus | Iowa State -3 | 53.3 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Iowa State -4 | 53.9 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Iowa State win probability
- model 72% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Iowa State -9.1 · market Iowa State -3 · difference +6.1 pts (Iowa State view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 53.25 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Iowa State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Virginia 23.3, Iowa State 32.4 | Iowa State 72%right winner | 6.1 | 31.2 |
| New formula | West Virginia 23.4, Iowa State 32.0 | Iowa State 71%right winner | 5.6 | 31.6 |
Final: West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Virginia vs Iowa State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | West Virginia | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.3#39 | 30.8#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8#85 | 16.0#31 |
| Yards per play | 6.50#56 | 5.85#87 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35#113 | 4.94#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 306.0#4 | 182.3#55 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.0#115 | 164.3#118 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#93 | 135.5#59 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.5#128 | 154.5#23 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#10 | 0.50#32 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#52 | 0.75#83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#39 | 1.75#74 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#59 | 0.75#15 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#47 | +0.08#79 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#121 | -0.08#19 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#50 | 39.3%#115 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.1%#114 | 38.2%#45 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#65 | 12.3%#86 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.6%#120 | 8.5%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#71 | 14.6%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#38 | 18.0%#135 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.59#39 | 4.52#43 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33#32 | 2.78#6 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#56 | own 29#86 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#45 | own 30#96 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.8#11 | 59.3#119 |
| Stat | West Virginia | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#35 | +0.02#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17#50 | +0.15#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10#107 | -0.10#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#117 | -0.07#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4%#43 | 39.3%#111 |
| Passing success rate | 39.4%#95 | 39.4%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.2%#23 | 19.3%#101 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.8%#62 | 30.0%#80 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0%#29 | 16.1%#1 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.7%#8 | 33.3%#118 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.6%#45 | 28.3%#14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#102 | 66.7%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 41.7%#13 | 57.1%#67 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Virginia schedule · Iowa State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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