Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 36.9, Ball State 21.2 at Scheumann Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Toledo wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.7 points and 58 combined points.
Toledo is 3-1, scoring 43.3 and allowing 26 points per game (+17.3 per game). Ball State is 1-3, scoring 18 and allowing 37.5 points per game (-19.5 per game).
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (45th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Ball State's struggling defense (135th); that mismatch is where most of Toledo's projected points come from. Expect Ball State to find it hard going: Toledo's below-average defense (95th) outranks Ball State's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 38 and Ball State by 7 about 80% of the time.
Ball State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Toledo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Toledo 39, Ball State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.7 points and the total by 5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Toledo / Ball State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -18.5 → Toledo -20.75 | 51.5 → 52.25 | -1375 / +775 |
| DraftKings | Toledo -17.5 → Toledo -20.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | -1350 / +800 |
| Bovada | Toledo -19.5 → Toledo -21 | 51.5 → 52 | -1400 / +750 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ball State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -15.5 | 58.0 | 15% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -20.5 | 52.3 | 11% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -20 | 53.2 | 9% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ball State win probability
- model 15% · market (no-vig) 11% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -15.7 · market Toledo -20.75 · difference +5.1 pts (Ball State view)
- Total
- model 58.0 · market 52.25 · difference +5.8
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Toledo 36.9, Ball State 21.2 | Toledo 85%right winner | 0.7 | 5.0 |
| New formula | Toledo 38.0, Ball State 21.5 | Toledo 86%right winner | 1.5 | 3.6 |
Final: Toledo 39, Ball State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Toledo vs Ball State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 43.3#14 | 18.0#130 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#98 | 37.5#135 |
| Yards per play | 7.19#19 | 4.76#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.72#29 | 7.03#131 |
| Rushing yards per game | 166.3#75 | 127.0#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 304.5#16 | 152.8#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 145.5#71 | 206.0#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.0#50 | 258.0#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#48 | 0.75#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#102 | 0.75#100 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#57 | 1.25#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#9 | 2.50#113 |
| Stat | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#63 | +0.01#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#51 | +0.15#118 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#84 | 33.0%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.8%#33 | 43.8%#105 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3%#45 | 10.5%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#58 | 14.3%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#97 | 12.4%#102 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7%#66 | 14.7%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.24#63 | 4.14#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.26#100 | 5.50#136 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#13 | own 27#116 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#122 | own 30#87 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5#69 | 58.8#127 |
| Stat | Toledo | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#93 | +0.03#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#47 | -0.00#102 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.08#24 | -0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#85 | +0.31#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.4%#73 | 31.4%#137 |
| Passing success rate | 47.4%#41 | 34.3%#124 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6%#94 | 22.2%#129 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.6%#63 | 25.7%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.6%#51 | 38.2%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#29 | 27.1%#136 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9%#47 | 47.2%#127 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.5%#20 | 55.6%#101 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.4%#111 | 93.3%#137 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Toledo schedule · Ball State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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