Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Bryant 25.5, Maine 24.4 at Harold Alfond Sports Stadium in Week 7. That is a genuine toss-up: Bryant wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Bryant is 4-2, scoring 20.5 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-2.8 per game). Maine is 1-5, scoring 14.5 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-16.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bryant by 24 and Maine by 21 about 80% of the time.
Maine gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Bryant is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Bryant 17, Maine 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 18.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bryant / Maine) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bryant -1.5 → Maine -1.5 | 44.5 → 45.5 | +120 / -150 |
| DraftKings | Bryant -1.5 → Maine -1.5 | 44.5 → 45.5 | +120 / -150 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maine win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Bryant -1 | 49.9 | 47% |
| Market consensus | Maine -1.5 | 45.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Maine -1 | 46.9 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maine win probability
- model 47% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -10 pts
- Margin
- model Bryant -1.1 · market Maine -1.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Maine view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 45.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Bryant than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bryant 25.5, Maine 24.4 | Bryant 53%right winner | 1.9 | 18.9 |
| New formula | Bryant 24.7, Maine 25.6 | Maine 52%wrong winner | 3.9 | 19.4 |
Final: Bryant 17, Maine 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bryant vs Maine: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bryant | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 24.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.35 | 5.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08 | 5.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.5 | 173.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.2 | 147.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.4 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Stat | Bryant | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 42.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.51 | 2.49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.18 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.6 | 61.7 |
| Stat | Bryant | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.6% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 40.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4% | 30.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.8% | 34.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.0% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.9% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5% | 69.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bryant schedule · Maine schedule · all Week 7 projections
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