Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Towson 27.2, Maine 23.3 at Johnny Unitas Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Towson wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Maine has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Towson has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maine by 19 and Towson by 26 about 80% of the time.
Towson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Towson by about 1.8.
Result: Maine 21, Towson 18. Maine won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maine / Towson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Towson -2.5 | 46.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Towson -2.5 | 46.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Towson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Towson -4 | 50.4 | 60% |
| Market consensus | Towson -2.5 | 46.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Towson -2.5 | 47.8 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Towson win probability
- model 60% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Towson -3.9 · market Towson -2.5 · difference +1.4 pts (Towson view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 46.5 · difference +3.9
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Towson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maine 23.3, Towson 27.2 | Towson 60%wrong winner | 6.9 | 11.4 |
| New formula | Maine 20.6, Towson 32.0 | Towson 75%wrong winner | 14.4 | 13.6 |
Final: Maine 21, Towson 18. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maine vs Towson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Maine | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.2 | 26.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 25.1 |
| Yards per play | 5.55 | 6.01 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 5.67 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.8 | 110.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.4 | 237.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.2 | 179.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 222.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 1.27 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 1.45 |
| Stat | Maine | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.00 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 40.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 46.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 10.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 12.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 9.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.49 | 2.94 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 4.05 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.7 | 57.9 |
| Stat | Maine | Towson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 42.3% |
| Passing success rate | 40.9% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 17.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 39.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5% | 41.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 45.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9% | 37.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6% | 61.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · Towson schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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