Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Boston College 42.3, Maine 4.7 at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Boston College wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 37.6 points and 47 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Maine is 1-2, scoring 12.7 and allowing 32 points per game (-19.3 per game). Boston College is 1-1, scoring 21.5 and allowing 27.5 points per game (-6 per game).
Maine plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Boston College's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Boston College by 15 and Boston College by 60 about 80% of the time.
Boston College gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Boston College by about 35.5. The game is on ACCNX.
Result: Maine 16, Boston College 22. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 31.6 points and the total by 9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maine / Boston College) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Boston College -38.5 → Boston College -37.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Boston College -38.5 → Boston College -37.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Boston College -38.5 → Boston College -37.5 | 53.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Boston College win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Boston College -37.5 | 47.0 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Boston College -37.5 | 54.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Boston College -37.5 | 54.5 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Boston College win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Boston College -37.6 · market Boston College -37.5 · difference +0.1 pts (Boston College view)
- Total
- model 47.0 · market 54.5 · difference -7.5
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maine 4.7, Boston College 42.3 | Boston College 99%right winner | 31.6 | 9.0 |
| New formula | Maine 8.7, Boston College 41.8 | Boston College 98%right winner | 27.1 | 12.5 |
Final: Maine 16, Boston College 22. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maine vs Boston College: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Maine | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.7 | 21.5#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.0 | 27.5#107 |
| Yards per play | 4.78 | 5.94#82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09 | 5.70#94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 89.3 | 161.5#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.3 | 230.5#71 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 231.7 | 212.0#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.3 | 152.5#33 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 2.00#128 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00 | 2.00#17 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.50#113 |
| Stat | Maine | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.03#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.03#72 |
| Success rate | 32.3% | 37.2%#119 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 39.8%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.8% | 12.4%#81 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% | 11.7%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 13.3%#84 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 16.3%#120 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.88 | 4.38#60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.68 | 3.69#64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 23 | own 25#127 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 20 | own 36#135 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.3 | 66.0#74 |
| Stat | Maine | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.23 | +0.21#14 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.25#130 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.03#56 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.13#104 |
| Rushing success rate | 23.9% | 44.4%#75 |
| Passing success rate | 35.2% | 30.3%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 31.3% | 17.5%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 30.6%#81 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 41.0%#131 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.7% | 32.0%#119 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7% | 34.8%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 28.7% | 50.0%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.5% | 66.7%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · Boston College schedule · all Week 3 projections
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