Matchup analysis
Our model projects Maine 25, New Hampshire 23 at Harold Alfond Sports Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Maine wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 48 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
New Hampshire is 2-7 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.3 and allowing 33.2 points per game (-13.9 per game). Maine is 1-7 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.4 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-16.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Hampshire by 21 and Maine by 24 about 80% of the time.
Maine gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field New Hampshire would be favoured by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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New Hampshire vs Maine: stat comparison
| Stat | New Hampshire | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.3 | 13.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.2 | 29.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.12 | 4.50 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.92 | 6.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 102.4 | 109.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.3 | 181.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 243.4 | 187.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.1 | 240.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.78 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 1.44 | 2.13 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.22 | 2.13 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 37.2% | 33.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% | 41.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 9.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% | 13.9% |
| Havoc rate | 9.5% | 13.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43 | 2.75 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.35 | 3.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 14 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.8 | 64.8 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.7% | 28.9% |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 33.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.1% | 25.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.9% | 23.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0% | 30.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.1% | 36.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 42.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.2% | 34.6% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Hampshire schedule · Maine schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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