Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stanford 30.3, Elon 18.8 at Stanford Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Stanford wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.5 points and 49.1 combined points.
Elon is 4-3, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.4 points per game (+8.3 per game). Stanford is 2-4, scoring 15.7 and allowing 41.5 points per game (-25.8 per game).
Elon plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Stanford's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Elon by 11 and Stanford by 34 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stanford by about 9.4. The game is on ACCNX.
Result: Elon 7, Stanford 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.5 points and the total by 8.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Elon / Stanford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stanford -35.5 → Stanford -33.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Stanford -35.5 → Stanford -33.5 | 56.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stanford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stanford -11.5 | 49.1 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Stanford -33.5 | 55.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Stanford -30 | 55.5 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stanford win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Stanford -11.5 · market Stanford -33.5 · difference -22.0 pts (Stanford view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 55.5 · difference -6.4
Model margin is 22.0 pts more toward Elon than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Elon 18.8, Stanford 30.3 | Stanford 77%right winner | 15.5 | 8.1 |
| New formula | Elon 20.2, Stanford 29.4 | Stanford 73%right winner | 17.7 | 8.6 |
Final: Elon 7, Stanford 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Elon vs Stanford: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Elon | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 15.7#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.4 | 41.5#136 |
| Yards per play | 6.11 | 5.15#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.19 | 6.91#129 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.1 | 101.3#136 |
| Net passing yards per game | 210.1 | 221.2#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 103.4 | 202.5#124 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.0 | 283.2#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.71 | 0.83#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.14 | 0.83#66 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71 | 0.83#132 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14 | 1.83#79 |
| Stat | Elon | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.04#96 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.25#134 |
| Success rate | 39.2% | 37.1%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 48.9%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 9.9%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 16.5%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 11.7%#112 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 12.7%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.87 | 3.42#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.87 | 5.77#138 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 25#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 31#115 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.0 | 62.7#98 |
| Stat | Elon | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.07#123 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.12#64 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.13 | +0.22#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.27#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7% | 38.9%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 33.2% | 35.7%#120 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 20.4%#113 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 22.9%#131 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6% | 42.6%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.7% | 34.6%#114 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.9% | 52.6%#137 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 53.3%#112 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.8% | 81.5%#133 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Elon schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 7 projections
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