Matchup analysis
Our model projects Elon 35, Hampton 13 at Rhodes Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: Elon wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.1 points and 48.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Hampton is 1-7 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 17 and allowing 36.3 points per game (-19.3 per game). Elon is 4-4 against the 148th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 19.5 points per game (+3.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Elon by 45 about 80% of the time.
Elon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Elon by about 20.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Hampton vs Elon: stat comparison
| Stat | Hampton | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.0 | 23.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3 | 19.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.24 | 5.92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.19 | 4.57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0 | 186.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 186.4 | 190.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.3 | 118.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.8 | 182.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Sacks per game | 0.63 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.25 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Hampton | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.07 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 36.1% | 38.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.3% | 39.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 12.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 10.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.9% | 15.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.47 | 2.39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90 | 3.38 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.8 | 63.6 |
| Stat | Hampton | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.8% | 45.8% |
| Passing success rate | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 24.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.6% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7% | 27.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.4% | 25.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.5% | 52.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.0% | 54.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Hampton schedule · Elon schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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