Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Elon 27.5, Wofford 21.5 at Rhodes Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: Elon wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6 points and 49 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Wofford is 3-3, scoring 25.2 and allowing 28.5 points per game (-3.3 per game). Elon is 4-2, scoring 30 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wofford by 17 and Elon by 29 about 80% of the time.
Elon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Elon by about 3.9.
Result: Wofford 16, Elon 0. Wofford won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wofford / Elon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Elon -4 → Elon -3.5 | 46.5 | +128 / -159 |
| DraftKings | Elon -4 → Elon -3.5 | 46.5 | +128 / -159 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Elon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Elon -6 | 49.0 | 65% |
| Market consensus | Elon -3.5 | 46.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Elon -4 | 47.7 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Elon win probability
- model 65% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Elon -6 · market Elon -3.5 · difference +2.5 pts (Elon view)
- Total
- model 49.0 · market 46.5 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 2.5 pts more toward Elon than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wofford 21.5, Elon 27.5 | Elon 65%wrong winner | 22.0 | 33.0 |
| New formula | Wofford 21.2, Elon 28.5 | Elon 68%wrong winner | 23.3 | 33.7 |
Final: Wofford 16, Elon 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wofford vs Elon: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wofford | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8 | 28.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.11 | 5.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 | 5.61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.4 | 188.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.5 | 183.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.2 | 139.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.4 | 231.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.09 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Wofford | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 35.1% | 39.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 40.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 10.9% |
| Havoc rate | 16.2% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 4.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95 | 2.94 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Wofford | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2% | 44.5% |
| Passing success rate | 32.4% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 21.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.5% | 28.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 29.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 58.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.9% | 47.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wofford schedule · Elon schedule · all Week 6 projections
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