Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Dickinson (PA) 30.9, Davidson 23.7 at Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Dickinson (PA) wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 54.5 combined points.
Dickinson (PA) has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Davidson is 0-2, scoring 17.5 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-22 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dickinson (PA) by 30 and Davidson by 15 about 80% of the time.
Davidson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Dickinson (PA) is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Dickinson (PA) 14, Davidson 28. Davidson won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Dickinson (PA) 30.9, Davidson 23.7 | Dickinson (PA) 68%wrong winner | 21.2 | 12.5 |
| New formula | Dickinson (PA) 34.4, Davidson 24.6 | Dickinson (PA) 72%wrong winner | 23.8 | 17.0 |
Final: Dickinson (PA) 14, Davidson 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Dickinson (PA) schedule · Davidson schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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