Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Concord 32.3, Davidson 25.7 at Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) in Week 1. That is a lean: Concord wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.6 points and 57.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Concord has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Davidson has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Concord by 29 and Davidson by 16 about 80% of the time.
Davidson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Concord is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Concord 41, Davidson 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.6 points and the total by 18.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 1:26 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Concord 32.3, Davidson 25.7 | Concord 67%right winner | 0.6 | 18.1 |
| New formula | Concord 29.4, Davidson 28.7 | Concord 52%right winner | 5.3 | 17.8 |
Final: Concord 41, Davidson 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
More: Concord schedule · Davidson schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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