Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wofford 37.8, VMI 9 at Gibbs Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: Wofford wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.7 points and 46.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
VMI is 0-6, scoring 8.3 and allowing 41.8 points per game (-33.5 per game). Wofford is 4-3, scoring 23.9 and allowing 24.4 points per game (-0.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wofford by 6 and Wofford by 51 about 80% of the time.
Wofford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wofford by about 26.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: VMI 14, Wofford 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 8.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (VMI / Wofford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wofford -28.5 → Wofford -30.5 | 46.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Wofford -28.5 → Wofford -30.5 | 46.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wofford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wofford -28.5 | 46.8 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Wofford -30.5 | 46.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Wofford -30.5 | 47.6 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wofford win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Wofford -28.7 · market Wofford -30.5 · difference -1.8 pts (Wofford view)
- Total
- model 46.8 · market 46.5 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward VMI than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | VMI 9.0, Wofford 37.8 | Wofford 97%right winner | 1.7 | 8.2 |
| New formula | VMI 9.2, Wofford 38.7 | Wofford 97%right winner | 2.5 | 7.1 |
Final: VMI 14, Wofford 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
VMI vs Wofford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | VMI | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 22.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.6 | 17.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 5.11 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.10 | 5.33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.3 | 139.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.1 | 168.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 224.3 | 134.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.6 | 265.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.64 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.09 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.64 |
| Stat | VMI | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 35.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.6% | 40.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 11.1% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 12.2% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 13.3% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.32 | 2.99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 3.95 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.6 | 60.3 |
| Stat | VMI | Wofford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.21 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | -0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.8% | 38.2% |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 32.4% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0% | 19.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 21.5% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 29.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.3% | 33.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.4% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5% | 55.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: VMI schedule · Wofford schedule · all Week 7 projections
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