Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San Diego State 46.6, Portland State 5.1 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: San Diego State wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 41.5 points and 51.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Portland State is 0-1, scoring 24 and allowing 31 points per game (-7 per game). San Diego State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Portland State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why San Diego State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego State by 19 and San Diego State by 64 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour San Diego State by about 39.4. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Portland State 20, San Diego State 53. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.5 points and the total by 21.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Portland State / San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego State -39.5 | 59.75 → 61.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | San Diego State -38.5 | 57.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | San Diego State -40.5 | 62 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego State -41.5 | 51.6 | 100% |
| Market consensus | San Diego State -39.5 | 61.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | San Diego State -40 | 61.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego State win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model San Diego State -41.5 · market San Diego State -39.5 · difference +2.0 pts (San Diego State view)
- Total
- model 51.6 · market 61.75 · difference -10.1
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward San Diego State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Portland State 5.1, San Diego State 46.6 | San Diego State 100%right winner | 8.5 | 21.4 |
| New formula | Portland State 8.1, San Diego State 49.4 | San Diego State 99%right winner | 8.3 | 15.4 |
Final: Portland State 20, San Diego State 53. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Portland State vs San Diego State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Portland State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.2 | 26.4#77 |
| Points allowed per game | 42.7 | 15.4#6 |
| Yards per play | 5.30 | 5.89#67 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.25 | 4.75#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 120.5 | 219.7#15 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.4 | 161.8#119 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 265.2 | 149.8#46 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 195.5 | 172.2#11 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.83 | 0.85#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58 | 1.23#47 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.38#35 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75 | 1.31#23 |
| Stat | Portland State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.02#81 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22 | -0.17#5 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 43.4%#55 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.1% | 35.2%#10 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% | 12.4%#69 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.9% | 9.6%#14 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.7%#63 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.8% | 10.8%#33 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.87 | 3.68#98 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.30 | 2.94#8 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 32#18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | own 26#6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1 | 64.8#89 |
| Stat | Portland State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.08#37 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.09#109 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.29 | -0.03#47 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13 | -0.31#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 36.0% | 46.7%#36 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5% | 35.8%#119 |
| Run stuff rate | 29.6% | 15.5%#26 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.8% | 21.5%#135 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.8% | 23.9%#8 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 33.1%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 47.2% | 35.1%#20 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 13.5% | 62.2%#61 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.1% | 48.0%#12 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Portland State schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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