Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Syracuse 37.6, New Hampshire 13.7 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Syracuse wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.8 points and 51.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
New Hampshire is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 28 points per game (-14 per game). Syracuse has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
New Hampshire plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Syracuse's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Syracuse by 1 and Syracuse by 46 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Syracuse by about 21.7. The game is on ACC Network/ACCNX.
Result: New Hampshire 3, Syracuse 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 39.2 points and the total by 17.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Hampshire / Syracuse) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Syracuse -33.5 → Syracuse -35 | 55.25 → 56 | +5000 / -100000 |
| Bovada | Syracuse -34.5 | 55 → 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Syracuse -32.5 → Syracuse -35.5 | 55.5 → 56.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Syracuse win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Syracuse -24 | 51.3 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Syracuse -35 | 56.0 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Syracuse -33.5 | 56.1 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Syracuse win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Syracuse -23.8 · market Syracuse -35 · difference -11.2 pts (Syracuse view)
- Total
- model 51.3 · market 56 · difference -4.7
Model margin is 11.2 pts more toward New Hampshire than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Hampshire 13.7, Syracuse 37.6 | Syracuse 94%right winner | 39.2 | 17.7 |
| New formula | New Hampshire 10.1, Syracuse 41.2 | Syracuse 96%right winner | 31.9 | 17.7 |
Final: New Hampshire 3, Syracuse 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Hampshire vs Syracuse: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Hampshire | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.8 | 20.2#118 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.8 | 34.9#130 |
| Yards per play | 5.48 | 5.28#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68 | 6.66#130 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.8 | 143.5#103 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.5 | 222.8#74 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.8 | 183.0#96 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 165.0 | 246.3#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.54 | 1.75#133 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.83#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.15 | 1.33#117 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.85 | 2.83#123 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.10#126 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.07#108 |
| Success rate | 40.1% | 36.9%#125 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.8% | 45.7%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 11.0%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 14.5%#124 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2% | 11.1%#109 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 12.1%#73 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61 | 4.51#127 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 28#123 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | own 30#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.1 | 69.3#36 |
| Stat | New Hampshire | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.05#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.15#124 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.01#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.12#111 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.4% | 39.4%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 34.7%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 17.9%#62 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.2% | 24.0%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 32.7%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.8% | 35.7%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0% | 41.1%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.1% | 52.6%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.2% | 65.1%#104 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Hampshire schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 1 projections
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