Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois 36.8, UAB 20.9 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Illinois wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.9 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
UAB has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Illinois has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect UAB to find it hard going: Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (51st) outranks UAB's struggling offense (119th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). Illinois's strong offense (41st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UAB's struggling defense (119th); that mismatch is where most of Illinois's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAB by 7 and Illinois by 38 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois by about 13.8. The game is on BTN.
Result: UAB 23, Illinois 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 7.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAB / Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -27.5 → Illinois -26 | 56.5 → 54 | +1450 / -5800 |
| Bovada | Illinois -27.5 → Illinois -26.5 | 56.5 → 54.5 | +1400 / -8000 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -27.5 → Illinois -25.5 | 53.5 | +1500 / -3600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -16 | 57.6 | 85% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -26 | 54.0 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -24.5 | 54.7 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois -15.9 · market Illinois -26 · difference -10.1 pts (Illinois view)
- Total
- model 57.6 · market 54 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 10.1 pts more toward UAB than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UAB 20.9, Illinois 36.8 | Illinois 85%right winner | 3.1 | 7.4 |
| New formula | UAB 13.2, Illinois 44.5 | Illinois 97%right winner | 12.3 | 7.4 |
Final: UAB 23, Illinois 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UAB vs Illinois: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UAB | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4#78 | 29.4#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.3#135 | 23.6#56 |
| Yards per play | 6.03#57 | 6.02#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81#133 | 5.45#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.1#84 | 156.2#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 252.3#42 | 226.1#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 192.8#116 | 138.0#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 222.7#77 | 213.5#60 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#121 | 0.92#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58#124 | 0.92#79 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#116 | 2.08#59 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.42#111 | 2.46#113 |
| Stat | UAB | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#60 | +0.07#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#134 | +0.08#111 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#78 | 48.1%#15 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0%#134 | 45.4%#121 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3%#43 | 13.5%#36 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0%#116 | 10.0%#20 |
| Havoc rate | 8.6%#133 | 13.1%#54 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5%#87 | 14.3%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.91#76 | 4.49#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.76#135 | 4.57#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#96 | own 31#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#136 | own 29#59 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.3#57 | 63.5#102 |
| Stat | UAB | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#31 | +0.01#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.00#83 | +0.13#32 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#116 | +0.02#85 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#136 | +0.12#108 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.7%#76 | 48.4%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2%#66 | 47.8%#15 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#58 | 19.9%#99 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#36 | 38.0%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.1%#100 | 36.9%#133 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.4%#16 | 44.4%#38 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6%#135 | 46.2%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.3%#50 | 58.9%#83 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 77.6%#133 | 65.2%#105 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAB schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 1 projections
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