Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Minnesota 42.7, Eastern Illinois 6.6 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Minnesota wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 36.1 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Eastern Illinois is 1-0, scoring 28 and allowing 14 points per game (+14 per game). Minnesota has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Eastern Illinois plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Minnesota's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Minnesota by 14 and Minnesota by 59 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Minnesota by about 34. The game is on Peacock.
Result: Eastern Illinois 7, Minnesota 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.9 points and the total by 16.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Eastern Illinois / Minnesota) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Minnesota -43.5 → Minnesota -42.5 | 52.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Minnesota -43.5 → Minnesota -42.5 | 52.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Minnesota win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Minnesota -36 | 49.2 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Minnesota -42.5 | 52.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Minnesota -41.5 | 52.9 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Minnesota win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Minnesota -36.1 · market Minnesota -42.5 · difference -6.4 pts (Minnesota view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 52.5 · difference -3.3
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward Eastern Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Eastern Illinois 6.6, Minnesota 42.7 | Minnesota 99%right winner | 15.9 | 16.8 |
| New formula | Eastern Illinois 4.3, Minnesota 46.2 | Minnesota 99%right winner | 10.1 | 15.6 |
Final: Eastern Illinois 7, Minnesota 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Eastern Illinois vs Minnesota: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 17.5 | 23.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.2 | 22.9#50 |
| Yards per play | 5.13 | 5.20#119 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14 | 5.91#81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.9 | 113.1#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 166.3 | 196.5#97 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8 | 139.8#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8 | 216.1#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 0.58#6 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.00#72 |
| Sacks per game | 1.09 | 2.83#9 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.82 | 1.67#53 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | -0.00#91 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.00#65 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 39.8%#105 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.4% | 44.8%#110 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 9.3%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8% | 13.2%#96 |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 14.9%#12 |
| Havoc allowed | 17.5% | 11.7%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38 | 3.97#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81 | 4.05#92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 32#16 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 28#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 59.6#130 |
| Stat | Eastern Illinois | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.13#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.09#45 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.02#80 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.01#59 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3% | 38.2%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 40.9%#69 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 19.4%#93 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 28.3%#88 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.8% | 34.9%#124 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.4% | 43.1%#50 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.8% | 42.8%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.6% | 54.8%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.7% | 57.5%#51 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Eastern Illinois schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 1 projections
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