Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Air Force 43.8, Duquesne 16 at Falcon Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Air Force wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.9 points and 59.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Duquesne has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Air Force has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Duquesne plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Air Force's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 5 and Air Force by 50 about 80% of the time.
Air Force gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Air Force by about 25.8. The game is on MW+.
Result: Duquesne 0, Air Force 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.1 points and the total by 25.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Duquesne / Air Force) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -29.5 → Air Force -30 | 58 → 56.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Air Force -28.5 | 57.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Air Force -30.5 → Air Force -31.5 | 58.5 → 55.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Air Force win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Air Force -28 | 59.8 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -30 | 56.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -30 | 57.0 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Air Force win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Air Force -27.9 · market Air Force -30 · difference -2.1 pts (Air Force view)
- Total
- model 59.8 · market 56.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 2.1 pts more toward Duquesne than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Duquesne 16.0, Air Force 43.8 | Air Force 97%right winner | 6.1 | 25.8 |
| New formula | Duquesne 19.9, Air Force 39.3 | Air Force 87%right winner | 14.6 | 25.1 |
Final: Duquesne 0, Air Force 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Duquesne vs Air Force: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Duquesne | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 29.8#48 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 30.3#108 |
| Yards per play | 6.20 | 5.79#76 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.51 | 7.47#135 |
| Rushing yards per game | 201.6 | 256.3#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 191.9 | 137.2#129 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 150.5 | 162.5#72 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 189.1 | 268.0#129 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 | 0.92#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.67#120 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.25#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 1.33#26 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.15#16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.20#135 |
| Success rate | 42.8% | 47.2%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 48.0%#132 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% | 12.1%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 15.3%#130 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5% | 10.0%#126 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 9.6%#14 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.37 | 4.46#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.15 | 4.16#103 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | own 29#99 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 29#54 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4 | 67.9#48 |
| Stat | Duquesne | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.11#23 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.23#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.14#132 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.27#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.3% | 47.8%#21 |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 45.3%#29 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1% | 13.1%#5 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2% | 33.2%#38 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 37.9%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.7% | 50.3%#9 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.6% | 51.1%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.8% | 71.8%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.9% | 55.7%#41 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Duquesne schedule · Air Force schedule · all Week 1 projections
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