Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Nebraska 29.2, Ohio 24.6 at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) in Week 1. That is a lean: Nebraska wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Ohio has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Nebraska has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Nebraska's strong defense (17th) should limit Ohio's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Nebraska's strong offense (22nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.6 points against an average defense) against Ohio's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 18 and Nebraska by 27 about 80% of the time.
Nebraska gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Nebraska by about 2.5. The game is on FS1.
Result: Ohio 21, Nebraska 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.4 points and the total by 16.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio / Nebraska) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Nebraska -23.5 → Nebraska -23.75 | 47.5 → 47 | +1100 / -2450 |
| Bovada | Nebraska -23.5 → Nebraska -24 | 47.5 → 46.5 | +1100 / -2800 |
| DraftKings | Nebraska -23.5 | 47.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Nebraska win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Nebraska -4.5 | 53.7 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Nebraska -24 | 47.0 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Nebraska -20.5 | 48.4 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Nebraska win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -30 pts
- Margin
- model Nebraska -4.6 · market Nebraska -23.75 · difference -19.1 pts (Nebraska view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 47 · difference +6.7
Model margin is 19.1 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio 24.6, Nebraska 29.2 | Nebraska 62%right winner | 23.4 | 16.3 |
| New formula | Ohio 16.6, Nebraska 35.3 | Nebraska 86%right winner | 9.3 | 18.2 |
Final: Ohio 21, Nebraska 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio vs Nebraska: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Ohio | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.8#66 | 28.7#60 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.9#42 | 24.6#67 |
| Yards per play | 6.25#36 | 6.05#55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08#98 | 5.73#61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 232.5#11 | 162.4#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.5#108 | 220.8#77 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.8#60 | 192.2#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.1#59 | 150.4#3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#49 | 0.69#17 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#75 | 0.69#119 |
| Sacks per game | 1.77#90 | 1.62#101 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.92#85 | 2.54#115 |
| Stat | Ohio | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#42 | +0.03#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | 0.00#63 | +0.06#98 |
| Success rate | 44.4%#48 | 46.0%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0%#75 | 43.0%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#25 | 11.0%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.1%#92 | 13.4%#107 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#73 | 10.6%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#34 | 11.3%#46 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.61#109 | 4.05#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.55#37 | 4.41#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#54 | own 32#19 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#51 | own 28#33 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.7#59 | 63.4#105 |
| Stat | Ohio | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#27 | +0.03#68 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#65 | +0.04#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#100 | +0.15#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#45 | -0.06#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#56 | 47.6%#26 |
| Passing success rate | 45.1%#32 | 44.3%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.1%#6 | 13.6%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#46 | 31.7%#54 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0%#77 | 35.8%#128 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.9%#39 | 46.0%#33 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.1%#12 | 41.3%#80 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.5%#26 | 57.7%#93 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.8%#22 | 78.9%#135 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio schedule · Nebraska schedule · all Week 1 projections
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