Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected West Virginia 32.1, Coastal Carolina 25 at Milan Puskar Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: West Virginia wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.1 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Coastal Carolina has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. West Virginia has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Coastal Carolina's below-average offense (115th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.5 points against an average defense) meets West Virginia's struggling defense (122nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Coastal Carolina puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: West Virginia's strong offense (29th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.9 points against an average defense) against Coastal Carolina's below-average defense (117th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Coastal Carolina by 15 and West Virginia by 30 about 80% of the time.
West Virginia gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour West Virginia by about 5. The game is on TNT.
Result: Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.1 points and the total by 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Coastal Carolina / West Virginia) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | West Virginia -17.5 → West Virginia -21 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -49575 / -1587.5 |
| Bovada | West Virginia -17.5 → West Virginia -21 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -100000 / -1725 |
| DraftKings | West Virginia -17.5 → West Virginia -21 | 54.5 | +850 / -1450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | West Virginia win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | West Virginia -7 | 57.1 | 68% |
| Market consensus | West Virginia -21 | 54.5 | 69% |
| Blended projection | West Virginia -19 | 55.1 | 90% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- West Virginia win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 69% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model West Virginia -7.1 · market West Virginia -21 · difference -13.9 pts (West Virginia view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 54.5 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 13.9 pts more toward Coastal Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Coastal Carolina 25.0, West Virginia 32.1 | West Virginia 68%right winner | 0.1 | 2.1 |
| New formula | Coastal Carolina 20.1, West Virginia 37.3 | West Virginia 84%right winner | 10.2 | 2.4 |
Final: Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Coastal Carolina vs West Virginia: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.2#109 | 21.8#110 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.1#125 | 30.8#113 |
| Yards per play | 5.19#120 | 5.31#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.37#120 | 6.11#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.5#72 | 180.3#53 |
| Net passing yards per game | 175.7#116 | 191.5#100 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 218.5#131 | 162.9#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 237.8#103 | 272.8#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.62#126 | 1.25#100 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.54#17 | 1.42#26 |
| Sacks per game | 1.46#109 | 2.25#45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.77#70 | 2.33#108 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#106 | -0.13#130 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#79 | -0.00#59 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#120 | 36.3%#127 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1%#76 | 40.7%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6%#62 | 9.3%#132 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#101 | 13.6%#112 |
| Havoc rate | 11.7%#94 | 14.0%#27 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#96 | 11.7%#59 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.99#69 | 3.63#107 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.90#72 | 4.10#97 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#64 | own 30#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#114 | own 31#112 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8#75 | 70.0#28 |
| Stat | Coastal Carolina | West Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#50 | -0.14#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#116 | -0.11#115 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#92 | -0.09#19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#63 | +0.09#101 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#82 | 37.9%#118 |
| Passing success rate | 30.5%#134 | 34.1%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7%#97 | 19.0%#88 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9%#111 | 25.6%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#76 | 33.6%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5%#114 | 31.1%#134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.7%#57 | 41.3%#79 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.4%#78 | 61.3%#67 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.4%#72 | 62.0%#82 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Coastal Carolina schedule · West Virginia schedule · all Week 1 projections
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