Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kansas 40.6, Long Island University 7.2 at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Kansas wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.4 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Long Island University is 0-1, scoring 21 and allowing 42 points per game (-21 per game). Kansas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Long Island University plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Kansas's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas by 11 and Kansas by 56 about 80% of the time.
Kansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kansas by about 31.3. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Long Island University 6, Kansas 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Long Island University / Kansas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kansas -40.25 → Kansas -43.25 | 54 → 56 | — / — |
| Bovada | Kansas -42 | 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Kansas -38.5 → Kansas -44.5 | 53.5 → 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kansas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kansas -33.5 | 47.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Kansas -43.5 | 56.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Kansas -42 | 55.9 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kansas win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Kansas -33.4 · market Kansas -43.25 · difference -9.9 pts (Kansas view)
- Total
- model 47.8 · market 56 · difference -8.2
Model margin is 9.9 pts more toward Long Island University than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Long Island University 7.2, Kansas 40.6 | Kansas 99%right winner | 11.6 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Long Island University 8.6, Kansas 44.5 | Kansas 98%right winner | 9.1 | 3.8 |
Final: Long Island University 6, Kansas 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Long Island University vs Kansas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Long Island University | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.4 | 28.1#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 26.8#80 |
| Yards per play | 5.32 | 6.50#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.60 | 5.98#91 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.2 | 191.9#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.6 | 227.2#66 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.7 | 186.0#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.4 | 205.8#47 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 1.08#77 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 0.58#123 |
| Sacks per game | 1.55 | 2.00#68 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 1.50#37 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.12#25 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.09#115 |
| Success rate | 39.2% | 48.4%#13 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 41.6%#68 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% | 15.1%#15 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% | 14.2%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0% | 12.2%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 11.6%#55 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.82 | 4.13#45 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50 | 4.36#117 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | own 30#72 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | own 27#10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 64.5#93 |
| Stat | Long Island University | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.14#15 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.09#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04 | -0.02#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17 | +0.20#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.8% | 51.6%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8% | 45.1%#31 |
| Run stuff rate | 27.4% | 13.7%#11 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.9% | 33.2%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.1% | 32.4%#104 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8% | 41.5%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.6% | 41.9%#84 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.5% | 59.6%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.4% | 64.9%#102 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Long Island University schedule · Kansas schedule · all Week 1 projections
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