Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Middle Tennessee 42.3, Murray State 13.7 at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Middle Tennessee wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.6 points and 56 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Murray State is 0-1, scoring 14 and allowing 28 points per game (-14 per game). Middle Tennessee has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Murray State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Middle Tennessee's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 6 and Middle Tennessee by 51 about 80% of the time.
Middle Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Middle Tennessee by about 26.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Murray State 14, Middle Tennessee 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Murray State / Middle Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Middle Tennessee -20.75 → Middle Tennessee -22.5 | 58.5 → 55.75 | +925 / -1800 |
| DraftKings | Middle Tennessee -20.5 → Middle Tennessee -22.5 | 59.5 → 55.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
| Bovada | Middle Tennessee -21 → Middle Tennessee -22.5 | 57.5 → 56 | +850 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Middle Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Middle Tennessee -28.5 | 56.0 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Middle Tennessee -22.5 | 55.8 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Middle Tennessee -23.5 | 56.1 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Middle Tennessee win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Middle Tennessee -28.6 · market Middle Tennessee -22.5 · difference +6.1 pts (Middle Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 55.75 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Middle Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Murray State 13.7, Middle Tennessee 42.3 | Middle Tennessee 97%right winner | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| New formula | Murray State 15.8, Middle Tennessee 41.6 | Middle Tennessee 93%right winner | 1.9 | 5.4 |
Final: Murray State 14, Middle Tennessee 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Murray State vs Middle Tennessee: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Murray State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.0 | 22.4#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6 | 30.9#115 |
| Yards per play | 5.45 | 5.71#80 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.14 | 6.31#115 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.6 | 124.2#122 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.5 | 267.7#25 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 290.1 | 157.3#61 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 242.8 | 256.3#124 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.55 | 0.75#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.09 | 1.17#55 |
| Sacks per game | 0.73 | 1.67#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 2.67#117 |
| Stat | Murray State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01#84 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.07#107 |
| Success rate | 41.5% | 42.7%#59 |
| Success rate allowed | 53.4% | 44.4%#104 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% | 11.1%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.0% | 13.3%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 8.6% | 13.9%#29 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.6% | 13.3%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.40 | 3.60#110 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.34 | 4.29#112 |
| Average starting field position | opp 15 | own 29#101 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 13 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 68.7#43 |
| Stat | Murray State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.03#97 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.03#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | -0.07#21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.23 | +0.22#129 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.2% | 44.8%#54 |
| Passing success rate | 42.4% | 42.0%#57 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2% | 20.9%#109 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3% | 30.9%#66 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.7% | 31.9%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.0% | 38.1%#99 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 55.2% | 40.3%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3% | 57.8%#92 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.5% | 66.0%#108 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Murray State schedule · Middle Tennessee schedule · all Week 1 projections
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