Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Rutgers 40.5, Massachusetts 19.1 at SHI Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Rutgers wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.4 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Massachusetts has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Rutgers has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Rutgers's below-average defense (104th) should limit Massachusetts's struggling offense (132nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense) against Massachusetts's struggling defense (124th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 1 and Rutgers by 44 about 80% of the time.
Rutgers gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rutgers by about 19.3. The game is on BTN.
Result: Massachusetts 37, Rutgers 21. Massachusetts won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 37.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Massachusetts / Rutgers) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Rutgers -30.5 → Rutgers -29.25 | 54.5 → 55 | +2200 / -8000 |
| Bovada | Rutgers -30.5 → Rutgers -29 | 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Rutgers -30.5 → Rutgers -29.5 | 55.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Rutgers win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Rutgers -21.5 | 59.5 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Rutgers -29.5 | 55.0 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Rutgers -28 | 55.7 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Rutgers win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Rutgers -21.4 · market Rutgers -29.25 · difference -7.9 pts (Rutgers view)
- Total
- model 59.5 · market 55 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 7.9 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Massachusetts 19.1, Rutgers 40.5 | Rutgers 92%wrong winner | 37.4 | 1.5 |
| New formula | Massachusetts 10.9, Rutgers 48.9 | Rutgers 99%wrong winner | 54.0 | 1.8 |
Final: Massachusetts 37, Rutgers 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Massachusetts vs Rutgers: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Massachusetts | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 11.1#136 | 28.7#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.6#136 | 31.8#117 |
| Yards per play | 4.26#136 | 5.86#70 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.36#119 | 7.73#136 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.2#123 | 165.2#74 |
| Net passing yards per game | 156.3#123 | 255.3#36 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 227.2#133 | 214.6#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.5#69 | 235.1#100 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#23 | 0.58#7 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58#125 | 0.83#98 |
| Sacks per game | 1.08#131 | 0.92#133 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#118 | 3.25#128 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13#132 | +0.13#21 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15#132 | +0.21#136 |
| Success rate | 35.7%#130 | 46.4%#22 |
| Success rate allowed | 48.2%#133 | 47.6%#128 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.6%#127 | 12.4%#67 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#122 | 17.9%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 8.1%#136 | 11.6%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#119 | 12.7%#91 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.62#135 | 4.03#63 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.70#134 | 4.69#132 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#134 | own 28#113 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#129 | own 28#29 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.4#79 | 71.8#14 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#124 | +0.05#56 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17#128 | +0.21#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#99 | +0.16#135 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29#135 | +0.27#133 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.8%#134 | 46.0%#41 |
| Passing success rate | 34.6%#125 | 46.8%#18 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.8%#134 | 14.8%#19 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.1%#121 | 35.5%#20 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.0%#125 | 34.4%#120 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.5%#133 | 42.6%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.4%#132 | 41.2%#77 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.0%#129 | 60.7%#70 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 75.6%#130 | 67.3%#111 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Massachusetts schedule · Rutgers schedule · all Week 1 projections
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