Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Washington 29.3, Washington State 19.9 at Husky Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Washington wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.4 points and 49.2 combined points.
Washington State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Washington has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Expect Washington State to find it hard going: Washington's strong defense (40th) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense). Washington's strong offense (40th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Washington State's below-average defense (91st); that mismatch is where most of Washington's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 13 and Washington by 32 about 80% of the time.
Washington gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington by about 7.3. The game is on NBC.
Result: Washington State 10, Washington 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.6 points and the total by 15.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington State / Washington) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Washington -21.5 → Washington -23.25 | 50.5 → 51.25 | +1150 / -2500 |
| Bovada | Washington -21.5 → Washington -23 | 50.5 → 51 | +1000 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | Washington -21.5 → Washington -23.5 | 51.5 | +1300 / -2800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Washington win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Washington -9.5 | 49.2 | 73% |
| Market consensus | Washington -23.5 | 51.3 | 92% |
| Blended projection | Washington -21 | 51.8 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Washington win probability
- model 73% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -19 pts
- Margin
- model Washington -9.4 · market Washington -23.25 · difference -13.8 pts (Washington view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 51.25 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 13.8 pts more toward Washington State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Washington State 19.9, Washington 29.3 | Washington 73%right winner | 4.6 | 15.2 |
| New formula | Washington State 12.7, Washington 42.9 | Washington 96%right winner | 16.2 | 21.5 |
Final: Washington State 10, Washington 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Washington State vs Washington: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Washington State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5#105 | 34.1#17 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.2#26 | 18.7#15 |
| Yards per play | 5.59#93 | 6.62#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22#27 | 5.10#17 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.8#107 | 182.8#51 |
| Net passing yards per game | 224.2#72 | 232.4#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.1#38 | 113.2#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.3#6 | 216.0#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.69#132 | 0.85#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92#81 | 1.23#44 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#41 | 1.85#80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#59 | 2.31#105 |
| Stat | Washington State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#116 | +0.16#13 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#36 | -0.07#25 |
| Success rate | 42.1%#74 | 49.6%#7 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#53 | 39.0%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#68 | 15.9%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#48 | 9.4%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#60 | 10.2%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#80 | 11.0%#39 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.06#55 | 4.80#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#29 | 3.38#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#92 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 31#107 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3#80 | 62.8#109 |
| Stat | Washington State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#129 | +0.17#8 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#86 | +0.15#26 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#63 | -0.12#10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#28 | -0.03#52 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#65 | 48.6%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#70 | 50.6%#5 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7%#106 | 17.0%#49 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.3%#105 | 36.9%#14 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.1%#6 | 28.8%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.3%#79 | 50.0%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#21 | 40.3%#63 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.5%#76 | 75.5%#4 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#92 | 51.2%#20 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington State schedule · Washington schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.