Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Eastern Michigan 32, San José State 27.3 at Rynearson Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Eastern Michigan wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 59.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
San José State is 0-1, scoring 26 and allowing 42 points per game (-16 per game). Eastern Michigan is 1-0, scoring 28 and allowing 17 points per game (+11 per game).
San José State's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.9 points against an average defense) meets Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (105th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San José State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (105th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense) against San José State's struggling defense (122nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 18 and Eastern Michigan by 27 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Michigan by about 2.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21. San José State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 10.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San José State / Eastern Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Eastern Michigan -3.5 → Eastern Michigan -1.5 | 53.5 → 54.75 | +20 / -142.5 |
| DraftKings | Eastern Michigan -3.5 → Eastern Michigan -1.5 | 54.5 | -105 / -115 |
| Bovada | Eastern Michigan -3.5 → Eastern Michigan -1.5 | 53.5 → 55 | +145 / -170 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Eastern Michigan -4.5 | 59.3 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Eastern Michigan -1.5 | 54.8 | 56% |
| Blended projection | Eastern Michigan -2 | 55.4 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Michigan win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 56% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Eastern Michigan -4.7 · market Eastern Michigan -1.5 · difference +3.2 pts (Eastern Michigan view)
- Total
- model 59.3 · market 54.75 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 3.2 pts more toward Eastern Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San José State 27.3, Eastern Michigan 32.0 | Eastern Michigan 62%wrong winner | 10.7 | 11.3 |
| New formula | San José State 25.0, Eastern Michigan 33.5 | Eastern Michigan 70%wrong winner | 14.6 | 10.5 |
Final: San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San José State vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San José State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.4#113 | 24.1#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.5#121 | 29.8#102 |
| Yards per play | 6.39#30 | 5.98#62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#96 | 6.43#123 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.5#120 | 150.5#88 |
| Net passing yards per game | 300.5#7 | 253.7#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 164.6#75 | 245.7#136 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 246.9#117 | 198.3#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#135 | 1.08#85 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#100 | 0.75#115 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 1.17#127 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#5 | 0.83#7 |
| Stat | San José State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#70 | +0.07#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#97 | +0.14#131 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#53 | 42.6%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.2%#77 | 45.1%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#80 | 12.2%#75 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#69 | 15.4%#131 |
| Havoc rate | 8.7%#132 | 9.8%#127 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#50 | 9.4%#10 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.20#126 | 4.33#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.38#119 | 4.10#98 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#121 | own 25#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#127 | own 31#100 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.8#58 | 67.6#54 |
| Stat | San José State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#59 | +0.04#63 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.02#76 | +0.09#43 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#52 | +0.10#123 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#118 | +0.20#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.8%#35 | 44.4%#57 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3%#79 | 39.9%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.4%#71 | 17.9%#63 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3%#59 | 31.6%#55 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.8%#60 | 36.4%#129 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7%#35 | 42.2%#54 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.2%#47 | 46.8%#126 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.2%#96 | 63.0%#53 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.3%#76 | 67.9%#116 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San José State schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 1 projections
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