Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kennesaw State 39.3, West Georgia 11.5 at Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Kennesaw State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.8 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
West Georgia is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 24 points per game (-14 per game). Kennesaw State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
West Georgia plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Kennesaw State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 5 and Kennesaw State by 50 about 80% of the time.
Kennesaw State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kennesaw State by about 25.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: West Georgia 0, Kennesaw State 47. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.2 points and the total by 3.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (West Georgia / Kennesaw State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kennesaw State -22.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +1500 / -3600 |
| DraftKings | Kennesaw State -22.5 | 51.5 → 50.5 | +1500 / -3600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kennesaw State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kennesaw State -28 | 50.7 | 97% |
| Market consensus | Kennesaw State -22.5 | 50.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Kennesaw State -23.5 | 51.3 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kennesaw State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Kennesaw State -27.8 · market Kennesaw State -22.5 · difference +5.3 pts (Kennesaw State view)
- Total
- model 50.7 · market 50.5 · difference +0.2
Model margin is 5.3 pts more toward Kennesaw State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | West Georgia 11.5, Kennesaw State 39.3 | Kennesaw State 97%right winner | 19.2 | 3.7 |
| New formula | West Georgia 15.4, Kennesaw State 34.5 | Kennesaw State 87%right winner | 27.9 | 2.9 |
Final: West Georgia 0, Kennesaw State 47. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
West Georgia vs Kennesaw State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | West Georgia | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.5 | 26.7#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2 | 25.5#73 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 6.21#38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.46 | 5.97#90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 228.1 | 174.1#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.3 | 250.1#45 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.9 | 201.3#123 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.5 | 210.9#54 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.36 | 1.07#74 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 0.79#106 |
| Sacks per game | 2.82 | 2.21#54 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.55 | 1.71#64 |
| Stat | West Georgia | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.05#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10 | +0.07#104 |
| Success rate | 40.2% | 42.7%#60 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.7% | 42.7%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 13.6%#35 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% | 12.7%#80 |
| Havoc rate | 14.6% | 13.3%#52 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 12.4%#83 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.66 | 3.68#100 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.51 | 3.73#53 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 28#27 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.8 | 68.4#45 |
| Stat | West Georgia | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02 | +0.02#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.09#47 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.15 | +0.06#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.08#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.5% | 42.7%#77 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6% | 40.8%#73 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4% | 18.2%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2% | 33.6%#34 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4% | 25.9%#22 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.4% | 41.1%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1% | 39.5%#55 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 59.1%#80 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 39.0% | 58.5%#56 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: West Georgia schedule · Kennesaw State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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